ECU vs. Cincinnati Betting Preview & Pick ATS 11/11/22

East Carolina Pirates (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2 SU, 2-6-1 ATS)

When: Friday, November 11, 8 p.m.

Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: ECU +5/CIN -5 (GTBets – Get a 125% real cash bonus when you use code PREDICTEM. They’ll also give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite NFL, CFB, NBA and NCAA bkb teams!)

Total: O/U 52.5

Outlook

There’s still a path for East Carolina to make it to the American title game, and it goes through Cincinnati. The Pirates would need a little help from old rival Tulane against UCF, but if the Green Wave can come through and ECU can handle the Bearcats, the Pirates would own the tiebreaker and be on track to get another shot at Tulane. And this is a case of strength on strength, as East Carolina puts one of the nation’s best passing attacks up against one of its strongest pass defenses.

But that’s going to be a tough ask because East Carolina hasn’t won in Cincinnati since 2001 and has lost 10 of its past 11 against the Bearcats. This isn’t a hopeless situation, with Cincinnati not exactly playing up to its potential at the moment, but it’s still going to be a major challenge. And that’s because Cincinnati also throws it well, and unlike the Bearcats, ECU doesn’t do well at defending the pass. If East Carolina is going to get a win here and keep its hopes of a league title alive, it’s going to have to either outscore Cincinnati or find a way to control the passing game.

How the Public is Betting the East Carolina/Cincinnati Game

The public and the sharps are in total disagreement. East Carolina has seen the money come in, while Cincinnati gets 68% of the tickets, as the line has dropped from -6 to -5. The total has ticked down from 53 to 52.5.

Injury Concerns

East Carolina:
Tight end Shane Calhoun (undisclosed) and wide receiver Jaylen Johnson (undisclosed) are questionable. Running back Rahjai Harris (knee) is out.

Central Michigan:

Tight end Chamon Metayer (shoulder), linebacker Devin Hightower (arm), offensive lineman Landon Fickell (shoulder), defensive lineman Malik Vann (pectoral), and offensive lineman Jake Renfro (knee) are out.

When East Carolina Has the Ball

The good news here is that Holton Ahlers has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the American Athletic Conference and represents a real problem for Cincinnati’s defense. The bad news is that even without Sauce Gardner (who’s now with the New York Jets), the Bearcats are still excellent at stopping the pass.

So what does East Carolina do here? The Pirates’ ground game is far from helpless, as Keaton Mitchell averages 5.1 yards per carry and has six touchdowns in his past three games. Plus, East Carolina isn’t afraid to give him plenty of work. Against Memphis, even though the Tigers’ pass defense is terrible, the Pirates went away from their strength and gave Mitchell 29 carries in an effort to keep Memphis’ powerful passing offense chained to the sidelines. Expect Ahlers to keep looking for wide receivers Isaiah Winstead (64 catches for 871 yards) and C.J. Johnson (eight touchdowns). However, Mitchell should get a high workload as the Pirates try to attack the weaker part of Cincinnati’s defense.

When Cincinnati Has the Ball

This passing attack was supposed to fall back to the back after graduating Desmond Ridder, but Ben Bryant has done well since coming down Interstate 75 from Eastern Michigan. The former Eagle has 18 touchdowns against six interceptions, and receivers Tyler Scott (686 yards, eight touchdowns) and Tre Tucker have given him a very dangerous passing tandem.

And that’s perfect for this game because passing is how you beat East Carolina. Even Navy, a traditional triple option team, had to throw the football against ECU in order to win. The Mids threw ten passes in that win for 152 yards, an adventure for them because East Carolina held them under three yards per carry on 66 attempts. Maybe a Big Ten team like Michigan could run the ball on the Pirates with success, but Group of 5 squads just don’t run the ball on the Pirates. Charles McClelland is a good back, but he’s probably going to be close to invisible in this situation. Look for Bryant to attack the air every chance he gets.More Picks: Get Dan’s Hoosiers vs. Buckeyes Week 11 point spread winner >>>

Betting Trends

Cincinnati is not a friendly place for East Carolina. Granted, playing them in Greenville hasn’t gone much better, but at least they’ve covered there half the time. No such luck in Ohio, where the Bearcats have six straight covers against ECU. Other than that, ECU tends to do well on the road, covering in six of its past eight contests.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been where wallets go to drain. The Bearcats have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their past five games, often opening themselves up to last-second backdoor covers. Cincinnati has done better at home, covering in 11 of its last 16 home games. Keep in mind, though, the majority of those came with the Ridder/Gardner teams that are now mostly playing on Sundays.

Weather Report

High schools in the area are moving their games to avoid the wind and rain from Tropical Storm Nicole. You can’t really do that with a college game on national television, which means the Bearcats are stuck playing in the rain with 24 miles per hour gusts. Sustained winds will blow at eight miles per hour to the north, with temperatures sitting at 61 degrees.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The weather is a big equalizer here that plays into East Carolina’s hands. If the Bearcats can’t move the ball through the air, they’re not beating the Pirates. The ECU run defense is too good for the Bearcats to win this game without taking to the skies, and the Pirates are not afraid to run the football. Give me East Carolina and the points. Bet your Week 11 college football predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500 at one of the oldest and best bookies on the web —> Betnow Sportsbook!