East Carolina vs. Tulsa Week 12: Free CFB Pick and Betting Prediction

East Carolina Pirates (5-4 SU, ATS 5-3)  vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-6 SU, ATS 2-5)
Date: 7:30 EST Thursday, November 14th
Location: Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: ECU -14/TU +14
Money Line: ECU -556/TU  +399
Over/Under: 61

East Carolina comes into this matchup as the heavy favorite, with the point spread at -14. The over/under line is currently at 61 points. Tulsa and East Carolina are set to face off on Thursday, November 14th, with ESPN handling the television broadcast. The game is scheduled for 7:30 ET from Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa. The moneyline odds have East Carolina at -556 and Tulsa at +399. East Carolina has a 5-4 record this season, while Tulsa is 3-6.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the East Carolina Pirates and Tulsa Golden Hurricane did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have the leg up at 2-1. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 69 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

East Carolina Pirates Recent Form:

East Carolina enters Week 12 with a 5-4 record, ranked 92nd in our power rankings. They have a 91.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but no shot at winning the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates are 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road this season.

Against the spread, East Carolina is 5-3, with a +5.7 average scoring margin. They’ve gone 3-1 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs, covering the spread in three of four home games.

The over/under line for this week is 61 points. East Carolina’s games have averaged 59.2 points, with an average line of 53.6 points. Their over/under record stands at 5-3 this season.

East Carolina’s offense averages 32.4 points per game, ranking 33rd in the nation as they head into week 12. Their passing game is their strength, with 272.7 yards per game, placing them 29th nationally. They are 36th in third-down conversions, converting 44% of their attempts. Overall, they are ranked 91st in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Jake Garcia has thrown for 1,426 yards, completing 60.2% of his passes. He has eight touchdowns but also 12 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 72. Rahjai Harris leads the rushing attack with 616 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Chase Sowell has 603 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

East Carolina’s defense had a strong showing in their recent game, allowing just 14 points while forcing two interceptions. They gave up 137 rushing yards on 32 attempts and 262 passing yards, totaling 399 yards allowed.

On average, East Carolina’s defense has allowed 26.8 points per game this season. Opponents have averaged 162.1 rushing yards per game and 233.9 passing yards, completing 57.9% of their throws.

Away Injury Report

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Recent Form:

Tulsa enters Week 12 with a 3-6 record, facing East Carolina at home. They are ranked 131st in our power rankings and have just a 1.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.

The Golden Hurricane have not been favored in any game this season. Their average scoring margin is -13.7 points, and they are 2-5 against the spread.

This week’s over/under line is set at 61 points. Tulsa’s games have averaged 63.2 points, with an average over/under line of 58 points.

Tulsa’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game heading into week 12, placing them 66th in the nation. They are ranked 127th in our offensive power rankings. The Golden Hurricane are 31st in passing attempts, averaging 35.2 per game, and 40th in completions, with 20.3 per game. They are 74th in passing yards, averaging 225.9 yards per game, and have converted 39.7% of their third downs.

Kirk Francis leads Tulsa’s passing game with 1,254 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 77. Bill Jackson is the leading rusher with 296 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Kamdyn Benjamin has 55 receptions for 683 yards and five touchdowns.

Tulsa’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 38.4 points per game, which ranks 101st nationally. In their recent game against UAB, they gave up 59 points and 403 total yards, including 233 passing yards and 170 rushing yards. Despite forcing two interceptions, Tulsa’s defense couldn’t slow down UAB’s offense.

Opponents have averaged 308.6 passing yards per game against Tulsa, completing 67.3% of their passes. Tulsa’s defense has faced the 85th fewest pass attempts nationally, but they’ve allowed the 181st-highest passer rating. Against the run, Tulsa is giving up 144.2 yards per game on 33.8 attempts, ranking 75th in the country.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across the East Carolina Pirates’ last three road games, the team averaged 25 points per game while allowing 45. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 0-3 straight-up.
• Through their last ten home games, Tulsa has an ATS record of just 5-4-1. However, their overall record was 3-7 while averaging 19 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Tulsa posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the East Carolina Pirates have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Free Pick

I’m not scared off by the big number heading into this one, as East Carolina is at -14 on the road. Tulsa is one of the worst teams in the CFB on both sides of the ball. I’d take East Carolina all the way up to -17 in this one, and getting them at -14 is a great value pick.

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