East Carolina Pirates vs. Michigan Wolverines Week 1 Pick

East Carolina Pirates (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Saturday, September 3, 2023 at 12PM EDT

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan

TV: Peacock

Point Spread: ECU +34.5/MICH -34.5 (Bovada – 75% bitcoin bonus and best live betting on planet!)

Over/Under Total: 52.5

The East Carolina Panthers come into Ann Arbor in week one to take on the Michigan Wolverines. On paper, it doesn’t look like much of a contest, and the odds reflect that. Michigan took an unbeaten 13-0 mark into the CFP last season coming up a bit short. They enter 2023 with big hopes in Jim Harbaugh’s ninth season as head coach. East Carolina will inevitably not be judged by how they fare in games like this, but they should give a good effort with head coach Mike Houston who took over a struggling team four seasons ago and went from three and four wins his first two years to seven and then eight wins last season. Can the Pirates put up a little fight and creep in under the spread or will we see a week one Wolverines romp against a totally overmatched foe?

How Does Michigan Perform in Similar Spots?

For the most part, the Wolverines spend their season taking on conference teams, with the occasional tough non-conference game. But sometimes, mostly in the early part of the season, they get layups like this. And as nearly five-touchdown favorites, it can be useful to see how these Harbaugh-led Wolverines squads perform when facing undermanned teams from far less-prestigious conferences. Earlier in Harbaugh’s tenure, we saw some closer-than-expected games against teams in a similar class as the ECU Pirates. But since becoming one of the top teams a few seasons ago, we’ve seen little mercy shown to these teams, including last season’s trio of demolitions over Colorado State, Hawaii, and Connecticut by the combined score of 166-17. East Carolina might be in better shape coming off an 8-win season than those teams, but we see we can’t necessarily count on any early-season apathy from Michigan in light of an overmatched foe. Keep in mind, that kind of pawprint-tracking of different animals can lead one astray.

What Kind of Resistance Will Michigan Get?

There are some who feel last season’s 8-win campaign for the Pirates was a bit of a crescendo, as they are now left with a heavily-depleted roster. As usual, Coach Houston was active in recruiting and in the transfer portal, but there is a lot to replace. This is true for offense, but especially on defense. Nearly their entire secondary is gone, and even those guys weren’t very good, so maybe a reset doesn’t hurt that much. The definite strength of their “D” was their line, which is intact. It offers at least a little hope that while not being able to hang in there against a deadly Wolverines run-game, they can challenge enough to keep Michigan from running up and down the field all day.

It’s just that there aren’t going to be many teams this season who are going to be thriving on defense against this Michigan offensive line/running back combination, never mind East Carolina. Plucky front or not, how much will it really register especially with the rest of the Pirates’ “D” dealing with so many questions? And those aren’t the kind of questions this ECU defense has been built to answer going into Ann Arbor in week one. Those answers will come down the road, as they will for a new-face offense that will really be up against it in this stadium against this Michigan defense.

Can East Carolina Produce Scores?

You have to figure Michigan is going to put up at least 49 points in this one. You have this Pirates’ defense going against the face of the program in quarterback JJ McCarthy, a leading Heisman candidate, a 1-2 punch at running back in Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum, along with all the other bells and whistles. Maybe they let up the gas a bit with some big spots around the corner, but a prospective East Carolina backer shouldn’t count on it. This is a good spot to shake off some cobwebs, and the best way to do that is to turn this offense loose a little bit, and in that context, the Pirates cannot hang in there.

Unless they can produce results on offense—a daunting task. It is aided by a lack of urgency on the other side and a giant spread. One has to figure it will be Mason Garcia, a former four-star recruit who has been groomed for this, while former starter Holton Ahlers started at QB since 2018. He has been in the program for a while, while not really shining, and even getting some competition in the spring for the spot by Alex Flinn. They lost two 1000-yard receivers along with Ahlers and some key pieces up front. The issue remains that Garcia is a question mark, as is the rest of this offense. They have the big-play ability on both sides of the ball to put up some surprise scores, but it’s going to be tough.

Lay the Number

I think there are some better candidates in week one to take the ton of points in a lopsided matchup and hope the level of beating is less than ultra-supreme. I just don’t see either side of the East Carolina ball thriving in any context in this game, and for them to cover would be more a result of happenstance than anything they did right. It’s a bad spot for a new-look offense to catch fire, facing a Michigan “D” that brings more firepower in all areas than anything close to what they’ll see all season. And while their defensive line can offer some level of fight, and some talented guys in the back can make a big play, I don’t see it adding up to being enough for the Pirates. I’ll take the Wolverines in week one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Michigan Wolverines minus 34.5 points.

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