Duke’s Mayo Bowl Pick: UNC vs West Virginia – Betting Analysis

North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4 SU, ATS 5-4) vs West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4 SU, ATS 6-5)
Date: 5:30 EST Wednesday, December 27th
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: UNC +5.5/WVU -5.5
Money Line: N. Carolina +168/W. Va -205
Over/Under: 56.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels and West Virginia Mountaineers matchup in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. On the Bowl Betting Board,  West Virginia is favored by  5.5 points and the total is listed at 56.5 points. 

Question: Can you imagine how much money you’d be saving if you were betting on games at -105 odds this season instead of -110? Tons! Stop wasting your hard earned money and get signed up at Betanysports! Betting odds are cheaper there!

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The previous three head-head to matchups have gone in favor of North Carolina with a record of 2-1. North Carolina and West Virginia did not play last season. The teams split these games vs. the spread, each going 1-2. In terms of scoring, North Carolina and West Virginia averaged 61 points and finished with an over/under record of 3-0.

North Carolina Tar Heels Recent Form:

North Carolina’s overall record dropped to 8-4 after their most recent loss to NC State. The Tar Heels lost the game by a score of 39-20.

The over hit in this game as the pre-game over/under matchup was 55.5. On the point spread, North Carolina was handed a straight-up and ATS loss as they were favored by 2.5.

In their previous game, quarterback Drake Maye (skipping bowl game) attempted 38 passing attempts against NC State. He finished with 254 passing yards and a completion rate of 57.9%. Additionally, he threw two interceptions during the loss.

Not only did Drake Maye led the team in passing against NC State, but he was also North Carolina’s top rusher with 106 yards on 9 carries. On his five receptions, John Copenhaver finished with one touchdown and 64 yards.

North Carolina’s defense gave up 505 yards of offense vs. NC State. In the passing game, they allowed 334 yards while on the ground they gave up 171 yards. Coming into their matchup vs. West Virginia, the North Carolina defense is 106th in points allowed, giving up 27.1 points per game. So far, opponents have averaged 242.3 passing yards per game against them (130th in the country). Against the run, they’re allowing 164.6 rushing yards, which ranks them 111th in college football.

UNC Injury Report

West Virginia Mountaineers Recent Form:

The West Virginia Mountaineers are heading into this week’s game with an above .500 record of 8-4. In their most recent game, they added a win to their record by taking down Baylor (34-31).

With their 65 combined points, West Virginia and Baylor surpassed the over/under line of 54.5. Although West Virginia won straight-up, it wasn’t enough to cover at -11.5.

Garrett Greene ended the game vs. Baylor with two rushing touchdowns while rushing for 103 yards. Through the air, he had a completion percentage of 64.0%, amassing 269 yards. In terms of passer rating, he finished with a mark of 126.92.

Despite carrying the ball 17 times against Baylor, Jahiem White was unable to score a rushing touchdown and finished with 133 yards in the game for West Virginia. Leading West Virginia in receiving against Baylor was Hudson Clement. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 80 yards on four receptions.

Defensively, West Virginia allowed a total of 334 yards to Baylor. This includes giving up 119 yards allowed on the ground and 215 passing yards. On defense, the Mountaineers defense has 26 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. So far, teams are scoring 27.5 points per game against them (110th). In terms of pass defense, they’re ranked 120th in the NCAA, allowing 239.9 passing yards per game. Moreover, West Virginia’s run defense is allowing 145.6 rushing yards per contest.

WVU Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Looking at North Carolina’s ten most recent road games, they have put together a record vs. the spread of 4-5-1.
• Looking across West Virginia’s five most recent home games, they are 2-3 against the spread.
• Looking back at the last ten times West Virginia went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 5-5.
• Looking back on the last five times North Carolina was favored, their ATS record was 1-4.

Free Pick

The way I’m playing this Duke’s Mayo Bowl game is going all in on the Mountaineers on the spread line. Look for UNC’s offense to falter with Conner Harrell behind center. Harrell has some wheels, but the passing game may take a step or two back.