Duke vs. Ole Miss: ATS Pick for Gator Bowl Showdown

Duke Blue Devils vs. Ole Miss Rebels, 1/2/24
When: 7:30 pm ET Thursday, Jan. 2
Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
TV: ESPN

Point spread: Duke +17/Ole Miss -17
Money line: Duke +500/Ole Miss -800
Over/under: 53

One team that exceeded expectations this season meets another that didn’t when Duke takes on Ole Miss in the
Gator Bowl Thursday night in Jacksonville.

Coming into this season, the Rebels looked like they had a great chance to make runs toward both the SEC championship and the College Football Playoff. Instead, Ole Miss lost three games and came up short in both endeavors.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils looked like they might be in for a long season, their first under new head coach Manny Diaz. Instead, Duke won a bunch of close games to play itself into one of the more pleasant surprises of this college football season.

 
However, the Dukies will play this Gator Bowl without their starting quarterback, who recently entered the transfer portal.
 

Gator Bowl Betting Odds

 
The CFB bowl season betting market opened Ole Miss at -14 over Duke, with an over/under of right around 53. Early betting action pushed the Rebs to -17.
 
According to Sagarin’s ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should be Ole Miss -14.5. But that doesn’t take into account Duke’s QB situation.

Duke Betting Preview

Duke reached this Gator Bowl by playing 9-3 this season, 5-3 in ACC action. The Blue Devils started 5-0, with a win over Connecticut, which just won a bowl game to finish its season 9-4. Duke then struggled through a 1-3 stretch, which included a really tough overtime loss to CFP qualifier SMU. But the Blue Devils then finished with wins over North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest to reach nine wins in a season for the first time since 2014.

The Dukies are also back in a bowl for the third straight season. Last year, a shorthanded Duke team beat Troy in the Birmingham Bowl 17-10.

The Blue Devils trailed the Demon Deacons in that season finale last month 17-3 in the third quarter, rallied to tie it at 17-17, then won it on a beautiful 39-yard pass-catch touchdown on the last play of the game.

Duke actually only out-gained two of its last nine opponents and got out-rushed by each of its last seven foes. Also, six of the Blue Devils’ nine victories this season came by seven points or less. So Duke’s been living a charmed existence for most of this season.

The Blue Devils only returned 10 starters this year for their first campaign under new HC Diaz. Many “experts” expected Duke to finish right near the bottom of the now 17-team ACC. Instead, they tied for fourth place. So, the Dukies played way above expectations this season.

Ole Miss Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Ole Miss finished with the same record as Duke, 9-3, but played under expectations. The Rebels started 4-0, flashing some big offensive numbers against a weak slate of foes, but then got upset at home by Kentucky. And two games later, favored by four points at LSU, they lost in overtime. Ole Miss stayed alive in the CFP conversation by winning its next three games, including a solid victory over eventual SEC champion Georgia. But the dagger in the Rebs’ CFP hopes came in a 24-17 loss to Florida. Ole Miss then finished with a less-than-impressive 26-14 Egg Bowl victory over a bad Mississippi State team back on Nov. 29.

So, while the Rebels are back in a bowl for the fifth straight season under Coach Kiffin, it’s not the one they hoped to play in.

Ole Miss, favored by 26 points for that season finale against the Bulldogs, trailed 14-10 after one quarter. The Rebs outscored MSU 16-0 from there but showed no interest in covering that spread.

Mississippi out-gained every opponent this season and finished +10 on turnover margin. So it’s a little difficult to figure out how they lost three games.

Ole Miss returned 20 starters for this season and went off as a top contender not just for the SEC championship but for a spot in the CFP. It just didn’t happen.

On the personnel front, Duke will play this bowl without QB Maalik Murphy (portal). On the other sidelines it looks like the Rebels will play with most of their key people, including QB Jaxson Dart.

This game will be the first-ever match-up between these two programs.

By the Numbers

 
Duke averaged 342 YPG on offense this season, just 97 on the ground. Defensively the Blue Devils allowed 344 YPG, 150 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranked as the 66th-toughest schedule in the country.
 
Ole Miss averaged 520 YPG on offense, 178 rushing, and held opponents to 315 YPG, 84 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 47 schedule.
 

Common Opponents

 
These two teams played two common opponents this season, Middle Tennessee and Wake Forest. The Rebels played those foes to 2-0 both SU and ATS and +358 YPG, the Dukies to 2-0 SU and ATS but only +30 YPG.
 

College Football Betting Trends

 
Duke is 5-0 in both SU and ATS in its last five bowl games.
 

Totals Report

• The Under is 6-5 in Blue Devils games this season, which are averaging 49 total points.
• The Under is 10-2 in Rebels games, which are averaging 51 points.

Free College Football Betting Pick

 
Duke led a charmed life for much of this season; eventually, that catches up to you. Also, the Blue Devils are playing without their starting QB. Meanwhile, Ole Miss QB Dart, who’s headed to the NFL after this game, says he wants to go out with a bang. The Rebels get our handicapping checkmarks all over the field for this match-up with the better QB, the better running game, and the better defense. We’re thinking this one might get ugly. We’re giving the points with Ole Miss.

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