Duke vs. Northwestern Predictions & Picks: Friday Night Clash

The Duke Blue Devils make the trip up to Illinois for a week two showdown with the Northwestern Wildcats on Friday. It’s quite an unusual site for a game; as Northwestern is completing their regular stadium, they are using a makeshift 15K-seater right on the lakefront, where you can see boats bobbing in the background. Northwestern was able to open with a win in their first game, with a tight 13-6 win over Miami-Ohio. It wasn’t a great showing, but let’s not forget that Miami-Ohio won 11 games and the MAC last season, so a win is a win. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils got off to a winning start this season with a perfunctory 26-3 win over Elon. Who should we get behind in this Friday night special in this intimate setting on the lake?

State of the Union

Last year was a pivotal and character-building season for the Wildcats. Mired in the whole Pat Fitzgerald hazing scandal to start the season, David Braun was moved into the head coaching slot as Northwestern scrambled to adjust. The excuses were certainly there for the Wildcats to tank—a deposed coach, low morale, and coming off the heels of a dismal 1-11 season. Instead, they galvanized around Braun, won 8 games, won a bowl game, and enter the 2024 season with a lot of momentum. If a year ago, you had said this is the spot they’d be in, you’d have gotten a lot of strange looks. In week one, it was a struggle, but we saw some of that late-game clutch surface again, with a late INT sealing it for the Wildcats against a good team in a pretty tricky week one spot.

After taking a dilapidated Duke program and working them into solid form with 8 and 9-win seasons the last two years with two bowl wins, head coach Mike Elco took the A&M head coaching job, paving the way for former Miami coach Manny Diaz to make his return to the ACC as Duke’s new head coach. Granted, one shouldn’t be looking to glean an awful lot from a win over Elon, but some things looked good, namely a defensive front that was going after the quarterback all day with 8 big sacks; this is Diaz’ area of expertise, as he just served two years as Penn State’s defensive coordinator. And first signs were pretty positive. They’d like to see their offense play better, as transfer QB Maalik Murphy from Texas was meeting more resistance than you’d prefer to see against the likes of the Elon defense. Still, with short TDs from Jaquez Moore, Jeremiah Hasley, and Eli Pancol, along with sterling defensive play, Murphy is allowed one “coming around to speed” game, but more will be asked as they battle the Wildcats.

Hints from Last Season

When you have revamped coaching staffs and new quarterbacks involved, what happened last season can provide a faulty roadmap. But Duke’s 38-14 win over Northwestern in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicated is enough of a stark result to warrant some observation. Northwestern wasn’t a bad team last season and just got run over, with the Duke running game having their say the entire game. The conditions were entirely different, as were some of the key pieces in that game, but Northwestern will need to do a lot to reverse that result, and we’ll need to see some of that strong run-defense that surfaced last week to deliver in this spot.

I think Duke was perhaps fortunate to catch Northwestern at home last season, in addition to playing them at a time when they were still working on getting their act together. If they caught the Wildcats in the middle of their late-season spurt, things would have come out a little different. And when you take the improvements made over the course of last season with the Northwestern defense, in addition to their pronounced positive start in game one, I’d expect them to do better in curbing the Blue Devils’ offense, particularly their running game.

What to Expect

The fact that the Wildcats are 3-point favorites over a team that thumped them last season speaks to the strides the NW program has been making over the past year, shaking off scandal and a 4-20 record in their past two seasons to become a nice little darkhorse in the Big Ten. Both teams have offenses that still have a lot of things to work out, featuring defenses that are the strengths of each respective team. A college game with a total of under 40 would speak to what kind of game is being forecasted, as the total for this currently sits at 39.5. It’s likely to be quite a grind.

Lay the Points

Again, I think it’s going to be a game where points are precious, with two teams playing with offenses that are works-in-progress. I think enough pieces that were key to Duke’s success in this matchup last season have departed to throw a new light on this pairing. I think when you pit the aggressive Northwestern defense against this Duke offense in this setting that, the Blue Devils offense is going to have more issues in a game where a key turnover or two could play a big role. I see Northwestern relying on their defense and getting enough done on offense to squeak this one out for the win and cover. I’ll take the Wildcats in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Northwestern Wildcats minus 3 points.