Duke vs. North Carolina Point Spread Pick | Week 5

North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) at Duke Blue Devils (4-0, 2-2), 9/28/24
NCAA Football Week 5
When: 4 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 28
Where: Wallace Wade Stadium
TV: ESPN 2

The 4-0 Duke Blue Devils and 3-1 North Carolina Tar Heels open their ACC slates when they battle for the Victory Bell Saturday afternoon in Durham.

The Line

Most of the CFB Week 5 betting market opened Duke at -1 over North Carolina, with an O/U of right around 55.5. Early betting action bumped the Blue Devils to -2.5.

North Carolina Betting Preview

The Tar Heels are trying to bounce back this week from one of their most embarrassing performances of all time, a 70-50 loss at home to James Madison last Saturday. North Carolina, as a 10-point favorite, fell behind 11-0 five minutes in and gave up 53 points in the first half! The Heels never got closer than 19 points from there on their way toward a real head-scratcher of a defeat.

North Carolina eventually produced 616 yards of total offense Saturday but gave up 611 to the Dukes. The Heels also turned the ball over five times, one a pick-6, and had a punt blocked for a score.

Burn that tape.

North Carolina opened this season with a somewhat lucky 19-17 win at Minnesota, considering the Gophers kicker, 1st Team All-Big 10 last season, missed two make-able field goals. Carolina then beat Charlotte 38-20 but came up short ATS at -21, then beat North Carolina Central (FCS) 45-10 but couldn’t cover at -38.

The Tar Heels returned 12 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last year. They had to replace QB Drake Maye but brought in transfer Max Johnson from Texas A&M. Then Johnson got hurt in the season opener. But 3rd-stringer Jacolby Criswell, playing in garbage time last week, threw for 475 yards and three touchdowns, so maybe he’s their guy from here on out.

North Carolina is expected to finish somewhere in the middle of the 16-team ACC this season, playing against a wins O/U of 7.5.

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Duke Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 4-0 for the second straight season after winning at Middle Tennessee last Saturday 45-17. Duke, playing as a 14-point favorite, fell down 7-0 early but used three takeaways to lead 28-10 by the end of the first quarter. The Blue Devils basically eased home from there for the W and the money.

Duke out-gained Middle Tennessee but only by a margin of 340-295. But a 4-1 edge in turnovers led directly to 28 Blue Devils points.

Duke opened this season with a 26-3 victory over Elon (FCS) but a very late Phoenix field goal cost the Dukies the cover at -24. The Blue Devils then won at Northwestern 26-20 in double-overtime, then beat Connecticut 26-21 but came up short ATS at -17.

Duke only returned ten starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last season. They’re also playing for a new head coach and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The schedule maker was kind to the Blue Devils, handing them four winnable games to begin with, but things get a little tougher from here on out.

Duke is expected to finish near the bottom in the ACC this season, playing against a wins O/U of 5.5.

North Carolina-Duke Recent History

The Tar Heels own a five-game winning streak against the Blue Devils, going 3-2 ATS along the way. Last year, Carolina beat Duke in Chapel Hill 47-45 in double-OT, but the Blue Devils covered as 10-point dogs.

That game was only 19-14 through three quarters but 36-36 after four. It also played over the total line of 55 points in regulation.

College Football Betting Trends

• As a favorite, Duke is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 games.
• North Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.

Totals Report

• Totals are split 2-2 in Tar Heels games this season, averaging 67 total points.
• Overs are 2-1-1 in Blue Devils games, which are averaging 46 points.
• Overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these teams, which averaged (without overtime) 68 points.

Free College Football Pick

North Carolina really laid an egg last week. However, to us that just makes them good candidates for a bounce-back performance this week. You know Coach Brown is doggin’ his guys all this week and their new QB looks like he can play. Meanwhile, Duke is 4-0, but who have they played? The Tar Heels own five straight wins over the Dukies, and we believe they’re still the better team. We’re betting Carolina, to win on the money line.