Colorado State vs. Nevada Expert Pick ATS – CFB Predictions Nov 2, 2024

Colorado State Rams (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-6 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday, November 2, 2024 at 8PM EDT
Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Colorado State Rams come into Reno for a Mountain West Conference battle with the Nevada Wolf Pack. On Saturday, a 17-6 win at home against New Mexico was the Rams’ third win in a row. At 3-0 in conference play, there are some big things that lie ahead if they can keep winning. They get a tricky road spot this week against Nevada, who now needs to dust themselves off after going into Honolulu and taking a 34-13 loss to the Rainbow Warriors last week, falling to 0-3 in the conference. What’s the right move for this Mountain West showdown in Reno?

Going in Opposite Directions

After getting crushed by Texas to open the season, the Rams had alternated wins and losses until this latest three-game winning streak. Granted, they were favored to win all three of those games, but it shows a level of functionality that has been missing from Nevada lately. Going into Honolulu can be a difficult spot, but a three-touchdown loss is really a bit much. A 42-37 win over Oregon State is really their only positive development since August. And even if the results they’re getting are an improvement on the last few seasons, you wonder when a combination poor results and injuries maybe sends them into a funk.

Again, this isn’t the easiest spot for the Rams. A lot of times, you see teams doing well coming into Reno even when the Wolf Pack are reeling, and they still fall flat. It happened to the Beavers when they came into town, and other teams have found that whatever works outside of Reno doesn’t always go off without a hitch here. Maybe the Rams have had things a little bit their way with a heavily-stacked home schedule and things start to become a little more-uphill in this spot. Nevada can hit some pretty low points, but they’re not that bad and can be a tough test at home.

Options for Colorado State

The Nevada defense has started waning. They’re giving up points, and the big plays from this “D” are becoming fewer. Cornerback Michal Coats, Jr. has four picks, but other than him, the big plays have been few and far between lately. Strangely, this defense has yet to record a recovered fumble on the season. They have been picked up apart aerially in spots, which could give rise to a better showing this week from Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. But another area where Nevada has been victimized this season is the ground where the Rams wield Justin Marshall and Avery Morrow, two productive backs in this Colorado St. offense. There is also a possibility that when Colorado State hits the field on Saturday, they will be facing a Nevada defense that is not only starting to fade but one that might be missing a ton of pieces, as well.

Last season’s 30-20 win for the Rams over Nevada is likely not the strongest compass for how this will go. First of all, for as bad as Nevada has been in spots, they’re still markedly better than the Wolf Pack team that had put forth consecutive 2-10 seasons leading into this year. Still, a lot of the faces we see on the Rams’ offense are guys who know what it’s like to thrive against this Wolf Pack defense, with Fowler-Nicolosi, Marshall, and Morrow all having big performances in the win. They’re all back, and while Nevada is a better team than last season, the same can be said for the Rams, having already equaled last season’s win total. While a Nevada backer can point to the low scoring the last few weeks from the Rams, they still won and covered the spread in both games.

I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the Colorado State defense can have a major say on what takes place here on Saturday. Having allowed a total of 19 points in the last two games has them showing a lot of resistance. That figures to be bad news for a Nevada offense that has been laboring in spots while also dealing with a slew of injuries. One piece of good news on that front is the return of starting quarterback Brendon Lewis, who should help stabilize things on offense. Bad news comes in the form of their top two running backs, Savion Red and Patrick Garwo, III. leaving last week’s game. They lost their top two tight ends. Three starting defensive linemen were taken out of the game. They also lost a key edge rusher, an offensive lineman, and a starting wideout. Trying to sort out this early in the week who will and won’t be missing time can’t really be done. However, a positive stance this week on the Wolf Pack should accompany some positive developments on this front.

Lay the Small Number on the Road Favorite

Again, it’s sometimes harder than it looks for visiting favorites in Reno. It could be the locale, the opponent, or the stadium, but whatever it is, teams don’t always ascend here. Still, with Colorado State having steadied the ship and with something real to fight for within this conference, I see them being on point against what is, at the very least, a downward-trending Wolf Pack squad and, at worst, a dilapidated Wolf Pack squad. I’ll take the Rams in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado State Rams minus 2 points.

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