Can Colorado State Cover on the Road? Week 13 ATS Pick

Colorado State Rams (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 13
Date/Time: Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 10:30PM EST
Where: Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, California
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Colorado State Rams take on the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday in Mountain West Conference action. Fresno State has seen an up-and-down season and enters this spot at .500, looking to get a strong finish to what has been their worst season in a handful of years. They have sagged in recent weeks, with a 36-28 loss to Air Force last week being their second bad loss in a row. Colorado State, meanwhile, has really caught fire in the second half of the season, winning five in a row entering this spot, including a 24-10 win over Wyoming last week. Who can get it done for us in Fresno on Saturday?

Can Fresno be Resuscitated?

It’s not easy getting behind teams in this kind of form. After a rough patch, Fresno State had restored order with wins over San Jose State and Nevada. At 5-3, they looked to crank it up another notch with Hawaii and Air Force in their path. At home as double-digit favorites with a 20-7 lead over Hawaii into the final quarter, they choked that one away, 21-20. Then, as 9.5-point favorites against a two-win Air Force team, a close game was dominated by Air Force late, as Fresno faded in yet another game for a big upset loss. Just when you thought they were getting it together, they basically died on a vine.

There is this very erratic nature to Fresno that makes it difficult either betting on them or on their opponent. A large handful of times this season, their games have made a mockery of the point spread, attesting to them being a hard team to pin down. On one hand, they’re at home where most of their higher-end performances have occurred. But you truly don’t know what you’re getting from week to week, and in this context against a streaking team with its eyes on some better things, they’re not a terribly appetizing choice.

Trouble for the Bulldogs on Saturday?

What Colorado State QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi lacks in aerial electricity and running ability, he makes up for with leadership and experience. He can bring the best out of this Rams’ offense. They can really run the heck out of the ball, with Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall leading the way. Again, Fowler-Nicolosi won’t make this offense a high-flying one, but he’s been fairly efficient in spots, and with no picks in his last four games, his play has been key for this second-half surge the Rams are on as they enter this road spot in Fresno.

People might look at Colorado State on paper and get the impression that it’s easier than it looks. They can run the ball well, but there are no stars on this offense. They lost their best receiver weeks ago. No one on the offense has any stats that evoke any awe. And you also see a defense that doesn’t really make a ton of big plays, along with a pass-rush that can go silent for long stretches. I think with a team like Colorado State, the scores tell more of the story than anything else. And in their last four games, they have allowed fifty points of scoring and it’s been since September 14 that they’ve failed to cover a spread for those backing them at the betting windows. And that’s not something that would have jumped out at you if you were looking at stat-lines. In Colorado State’s case, the numbers sort of don’t do justice.

Fresno: Still Dangerous

While their last few weeks of play leave a Bulldogs backer this week with little confidence, they are erratic enough to make one hesitant to lock in a read on Fresno. They’re bad enough to get dominated in the second half by an Air Force team on a 7-game losing skid. But then, a few weeks before that, they were good enough to annihilate a San Jose squad that gave the Rams a good run for their money. Fresno QB Mikey Keene has shown flashes, but the season might be getting to him a bit with a higher rate of picks in recent weeks.

Fresno has really struggled to run the ball this season. The bulk of their offensive firepower comes from Keene and his targets. With 2500 yards passing, it’s the only vital part of their offense, led by standout receiver Mac Dalena, along with talented pass-catchers Jaylen Moss and Raylen Sharpe. On the one hand, Colorado State has been able to avoid opposing offenses having big days through the air, but it has happened this season, and most of their opponents weren’t suited to that type of offensive approach, so maybe Keene can get some business done with his nice receivers.

Take the Points

I understand that weird things can happen in this conference. Colorado State, despite the run they are on, is not infallible. Fresno can be a tricky road-spot for visiting opponents, and maybe Colorado State has gotten a good run of games, with the tougher ones being at home, which combines to paint them in a light that oversells how good they really are. I just can’t get away from the maybe oversimplified stance that Colorado State is a better team, and getting a little point buffer this week is enough to make them the pick in this spot. I’m taking Colorado State and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado State Rams plus 3 points.

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