Colorado Buffaloes vs. Washington State Cougars: Week 12 Betting Picks, Odds & Analysis

The Colorado Buffaloes come to Pullman for a Friday night Pac-12 showdown with the Washington State Cougars. Both teams occupy similar stations in life, entering this matchup at 4-6, with each squad having notched just one conference win apiece. Washington State has really gone off the rails, dropping their sixth game in a row with a 42-39 loss at Cal last week. Colorado isn’t doing much better and despite a good go last week, fell to Arizona, 34-31. Who can get the win this week in Pullman?

Looking for Signs of Life

We see both teams losing and at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings, having basically been doormats within the conference. But within that can be subtle differences. Washington State’s fall has been drastic. These teams have a lot in common, where a fast start to the season melted away in dramatic fashion. The Cougars began 4-0 and then lost 6 in a row. They even beat Oregon State to open their conference schedule. But since then, it has gotten ugly and when looking at common opponents, the picture doesn’t get better for the Cougars. Arizona State beat them by 11, but Colorado beat Arizona State. And while Colorado nearly beat Arizona last week, the Wildcats hammered the Cougars 44-6. Still, the Cougars have been competitive the last two weeks, dropping each game by a FG each.

Colorado can’t be happy for the big egg they’ve been laying in the second-half of the season, at least from a W-L perspective. But there is measurable progress. In the last two weeks, playing a pair of ranked opponents, Colorado took one-score defeats. Against a half-dozen ranked opponents in what has been a tough schedule, the Buffaloes have really only been embarrassed once. So, while this run of losses in relation to the hype they were generating earlier in the season makes it just seem like a gigantic disappointment, it’s really not. The Buffaloes still have a ways to go, but the progress they made this season was significant.

Good Spot for Colorado?

After some games where Colorado played some of the better defensive teams in the conference, they now take on a Washington State “D” that has really been struggling. If you take away a 10-point allowance to a desultory Stanford offense in a game they still lost a few weeks back, Washington State has been allowing an average of 40 points a game for over a month. With Colorado showing better signs on that side of the ball and becoming more intact personnel-wise, this is a challenge that should cause concern for potential Cougars’ backers this week.

Colorado QB and coach’s son Shadeur Sanders has been punished in spots but has shown a lot of character hanging in there. They should be able to see Sanders connect with guys like Travis Hunter, Xavier Weaver, and Jimmy Horn, Jr. But the weak Washington State run-stop is not something the Buffaloes will be able to exploit with their leading back at 278 yards, and it just not being a featured part of their offense. It’s definitely an angle you would have liked to see Colorado be able to exploit.

Hope for the Cougars at Home This Week

The Cougars’ hopes are not bleak this Friday, not at this context within the Pac-12 and not with Cameron Ward slinging it all over the field. With 26 TDs and a dual-threat appeal, this Ward-led offense has some vitality, even if they’ve been hung out to dry by a defense not doing its share of the heavy lifting. Like Colorado, they can’t run the ball very well, relying on aerial plays. In this regard, they are more dangerous than Colorado’s attack, though lacking in other areas. It’s enough to make them an ultra-dangerous opponent at home when taking on other sideways conference foes. With Lincoln Victor, Kyle Williams, and Josh Kelly, the Cougars have three big-time receivers to wield on the Buffaloes pass defense, and it’s hard to not imagine them getting some things done this week.

It still rings empty to tout a team’s aerial supremacy on the heels of six straight losses. Between the inadequacies of their offensive line and running game, along with a defense that can descend to slapstick status on a regular basis, it hasn’t been nearly enough. In addition, Colorado has been put in a little tougher spots in the conference, playing better teams when those opponents were better off overall. Colorado’s better ATS record also speaks to a higher level of competence and the resolve needed to keep it together in the face of absorbing losses in bunches. It just seems like they’re slightly more intact as a team coming to the end of a hard regular season.

Take the Points

I’d be looking for Sanders and Company to be pushing hard for the win this week in what seems like a manageable spot. Washington State’s aerial supremacy is a threat to take over, make no mistake. But in most other areas, the edge is for the Buffaloes. If they can get off offensively, which shouldn’t be too difficult, I’d expect these other aspects to surface, as the better all-around team in the Buffaloes can ride that competence to the finish line for the cover.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Colorado Buffaloes plus 4.5 points.