Colorado at Texas Tech Over/Under Prediction | Week 11

No. 21 Colorado Buffaloes (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 11

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9th, 2024, 4:00 PM (EST)

Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX

TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Col -3.5/TT +3.5

Moneyline: Buffs -170 / T. Tech +145 (Get a 100% free play up to $300 w/code XPREDICT at Xbet!)

Total: 62.5

Coach Prime and the No. 21 Colorado Buffaloes were idle last week but picked up some momentum thanks to upset losses from Iowa State and Kansas State. With those losses, the Buffaloes are now tied with Iowa State for 2nd place in the Big 12 behind BYU. More importantly, those losses opened the door for the Buffaloes to have a legitimate chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game thanks to a fairly manageable schedule the rest of the way. On Saturday, the Buffaloes will face their biggest challenge remaining on the schedule as they look to keep their conference championship hopes alive with a trip to Lubbock for a showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Last week, the Red Raiders were on the other side of that upset loss suffered by Iowa State. Texas Tech delivered the upset, which was highlighted by a 71-yard game-winning touchdown drive that concluded with just 19 seconds remaining on the clock. The victory ended a two-game losing skid for the Red Raiders and provided the quality win that Head Coach Joey McGuire’s program desperately needed. Perhaps more importantly, the victory was a huge confidence boost for the Texas Tech defense, which has been among the worst in college football this season. The Red Raiders were able to overcome multiple penalties and turnovers to keep Iowa State at a modest number on the scoreboard. Texas Tech will need another big defensive effort again this week for a chance to knock off their 2nd straight ranked opponent.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Analysis

This match-up between Colorado and Texas Tech has a high probability of producing an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout. The Buffaloes offense has scored at least 28 points in six straight games and now has the opportunity to attack a Texas Tech defense that ranks among the bottom six in college football, allowing 462 yards per game. One of the big challenges that Colorado has faced this season, at least offensively, is keeping QB Shedeur Sanders upright. Fortunately for Colorado, Texas Tech’s defense has been unable to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks and simply lacks talent on the defensive side of the football. This should give Sanders plenty of opportunities down the field and set up ideal match-up opportunities for Heisman frontrunner WR/CB Travis Hunter and WR LaJohntay Wester, who have combined for 15 receiving touchdowns this season.

While Texas Tech’s defense has been a liability, the Red Raiders offense still gives them hopes for another victory. While we know Colorado’s defense is not exactly solid, this Texas Tech offense is likely to provide one of the Buffaloes’ toughest challenges of the season. QB Behren Morton is having an excellent season and has the arm to make all the necessary throws. WR Josh Kelly has proven to be a challenge for opposing defenses throughout the season and will likely draw attention from Travis Hunter. However, I believe it is RB Tahj Brooks who could be the biggest difference-maker for Texas Tech in this match-up. Brooks is an explosive runner between the tackles who has already surpassed the 1,000-yard mark this season. More importantly, the Buffaloes have struggled against the run all season. If Texas Tech can get things going on the ground, their balanced attack could exploit holes in the Buffaloes’ defense.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Trends

• Colorado is 6-0 ATS in the last six games.
• Colorado is 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• Colorado is 5-0 ATS in the last five games against Big 12 opponents.
• Colorado is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five games against Texas Tech.
• Texas Tech is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games.
• Texas Tech is 10-4 SU in the last 14 games.
• Texas Tech is 6-1 SU in the last seven games at home.
• Texas Tech has hit the “Under” in four of the last five games against Colorado.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Prediction

This match-up presents a multitude of red flags on the defensive side of the football for both teams. The Colorado and Texas Tech offenses should enforce their will in this match-up and likely create a fast-paced, high-scoring shootout. Although the total is set at a high 62.5, we believe there’s still a strong probability of cashing with the “Over.”

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 62.5!

Note: Be sure to check out our Week 10 NFL picks!