College Football Week 3 Predictions: RBD’s Under Plays

This week’s plays:

Az St/Tex Tech Un
Fresno St/N Mex Un

This is not the original article I wrote for these plays.
The original was two sentences away from being completed when my laptop crashed. When it came back up, 1,000 words had disappeared. Surprisingly, I didn’t curse. Much.

This vanishing article concerns me.
I am superstitious when it comes to betting. For example, if I play a total Over 45 I set the volume on my TV to 46 while watching the game.
(I’m not sure if that’s superstitious or anal-retentive, but there it is anyway.)
So I’m wondering – by crashing my PC and deleting my article, was God trying to tell me something?
Was He sending me a warning to not use those two plays?
And if so, doesn’t He have better things to do with His time??!!

Then again, maybe He was trying to warn me. Maybe I’m one of His favorites, I’m very charitable and altruist, maybe He was trying to help me out. Who knows? I’d like to believe it when they say “God loves you” but I never get a Christmas card from the guy.

But I digress.
Back to my dilemma.
What should I do? Stick with the original two plays that were deleted, or choose two different ones?

I think I’ll rely on my other superstition, one that I talked about last week when I stuck with TCU as my pick (and won), instead of changing it to the Florida Atlantic game. “Never change your original answer on a test, and never change your picks/analysis in an article.”

The NP play went 2-0 last week.
I used both games as forum picks, part of a 3-1 day, which puts my college football forum picks at 5-2.
Combined with my homepage picks (6-2) my combined record for college football 2024 is 11-4. Off to a good start.

I also used the forum to send out an update on Friday, noting that the Auburn homepage pick no longer qualified as an NP play, so players could make a choice whether to play the game or not.
I’m stuck with it, so it counts on my record but not on the record for the NP play.
It will continue this way throughout the season. Games will be added and taken down based on numbers moving and lines changing. Be sure to check the forum regularly for updates. And if I have another NP pick on the homepage that later does not qualify due to line moves later in the week, I’ll start posting these plays in the forum only after lines have mostly settled.

Four games qualify as NP Unders this week. I’ll use two here and two in the forum.
I’ll share some standard stats on these games, but they’re basically irrelevant because I’m making these plays solely on the strength of the NP play this season (13-5) and over the past four seasons since I’ve been using it (130-79, 62%.)

First up, the 12:30 PST game, Az St/Tex Tech.
The Sun Devils are 2-1 to the Over this season. All three games are Under the number we’ll get in the contest versus Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are also 2-1 to the Over, but two of three are Over the total the bookies have hung on this one.

The second game, the 5:30 p.m. PST match-up with Fresno St/New Mex, is a little more troubling for a play on the Under. Five of their six games this season have gone Over the total. Two of the Bulldogs’ three games have come in Under the number on this game, but here’s where it gets ugly – all three of the Lobos’ games came in Over the posted number for this game against the Bulldogs, including a very ugly 100 points scored in their game against Arizona.
Yikes!
Still, I’ll do what I always do – stick with my numbers and stats until they stop working.

When to Buy Recommendations:

Az St/Tex Tech Un
The line opened at 60′ and is sitting at 59′ to 61. I’m not sure if I’m going to get better than the 61 that our sponsor Bovada is offering, so I’m buying it now.

Fresno St/N Mex Un
This game opened at 61 and right now the board is all over the place. I see 60, 60′ 61 and 61′.
I’d like to wait on this one, thinking the public is going to buy it Over, but I’m not going to chance it dropping to those three lower numbers. Buying this one now, too.

This week’s plays:
Az St/Tex Tech Un 61
Fresno St/New Mex Un 61′