College Football Week 11 Preview: Southern Miss vs. Louisiana | Free Picks and Predictions

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date and Time: Thursday, November 9, 2023 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Cajun Field, Lafayette, Louisiana
TV: ESPN U

Betting Odds

Point Spread: USM +10/ULL -10 (Bovada)

Money Line: USM +310, ULL -415

Over/Under Total: 52.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles make the trip to Lafayette for a Sun Belt Conference showdown with the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns on Thursday night. Having alternated wins and losses for the past six weeks, the Ragin’ Cajuns lost to Arkansas State on Saturday, 37-17, to fall to 5-4 on the season. Southern Miss, meanwhile, is able to enter this matchup with a little momentum, not a common sight this season. After a prolonged 7-game skid, they got the upper hand on Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday, 24-7. Who can get us the cover on Cajun Field this Thursday?

Southern Miss: As Bad as it Looks?

Moving over from Conference-USA, this is only the Golden Eagles’ second season in the Sun Belt, and for what it’s worth, they beat Louisiana last season, 39-24. This season has seen things go south for the Golden Eagles. Last week’s win becomes less of a positive sign when considering it was a game among the last two teams in the Sun Belt not to post a conference win this season. We see them moderately competitive against middling or lower-end conference teams and getting mauled by the better teams they face. Not to take away from their ending a bad losing streak last week and allowing just one TD, but leading up to that, they had allowed 103 combined points in their last two games, with that coming against Appalachian State and Old Dominion, not exactly Conference USA stalwarts this season.

The one saving grace for Southern Miss, and we saw it last week to some extent, is that what’s on the opposing sideline might not be in prime shape to take advantage of the Golden Eagles’ shortcomings on both sides of the ball. The Ragin Cajuns’ conference work hasn’t elicited much excitement at all, falling to Georgia State, Old Dominion, and Arkansas State last week. Three covers in nine games also illustrate a certain underperforming streak they possess. And it’s hard to cover larger spreads with a struggling offense that has scored 17 points in two of their last three games.

Bad Time to Back the Cajuns?

Dealing with injuries and heading into the short week is never a good thing. For the Golden Eagles, being without one of their better backs in Rodrigues Clark is not great, as they lost him for the year two games ago, but they are relatively intact. Louisiana, however, lost starting QB Zeon Chriss, and with backup Ben Woolridge out, they will presumably be rolling with Chandler Fields, who hasn’t distinguished himself in the minimal play he has had. Chriss was a giant part of their offense through the air and on the ground, and we’ll see how their offense spins out of this one. They have a pretty good back in Jacob Kinodi and some decent receiving talent, but being this deep in the QB barrel is far from ideal.

Granted, it hasn’t really worked much this year from a W-L perspective, but the Golden Eagles have some talent on offense. QB Billy Wiles has a live arm and, despite some mistakes here and there, can be serviceable. A familiar name in RB Frank Gore, Jr. runs the backfield and is over 800 yards with eight TDs. Jakarius Caston and Latreal Jones are a nice 1-2 punch at wide receiver. All told, it might be the Golden Eagles who show up on this field with the superior offensive firepower this week. And against the Ragin’ Cajuns defense we have seen in spots as of late, that could be a problem. I understand potential Louisiana backers licking their chops at the prospects of facing this Southern Miss “D,” but with their own offense in such flux, it might be their own defense that needs to win the day.

For all the issues you can site about the Ragin’ Cajuns, we see it doesn’t often take a lot to throw this Southern Miss defense into a tizzy. Compromised Louisiana offensive pieces or not, most of the time, this Southern Miss “D” falls right on their face with there being no spread big enough to insulate them. It was a bad sign when Alcorn State of the FCS put 40 on them to open the season, with it only getting worse, absorbing 66 from FSU, 44 from Arkansas State, 50 from Texas State, 55 from South Alabama, and 48 from Appalachian State. For all of Louisiana’s issues, namely an offense dealing with uncertainty, there’s something to be said for them maintaining a certain level of competency, especially on defense. At least with the Ragin’ Cajuns, you don’t have to worry about them just bottoming out in the middle of a game where opposing offenses are just unabated, running up and down the field.

Take the Points

It’s not easy going with a Golden Eagles team that has largely stunk, both straight up and against the spread. It’s just that the Ragin’ Cajuns were operating on such a fine line as it is. These personnel issues might just be enough to set them back another notch or two, in which case their appeal as a double-digit favorite really sails out the window. With the mistakes that are likely to come down the pike from this Louisiana offense, in addition to the functionality and effort Southern Miss showed last week, I don’t think it’s crazy to think maybe the Golden Eagles can keep this one closer and get the cover in Lafayette on Thursday. I’ll take Southern Miss.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles plus ten points.