CFB Underdog of the Week Picks

This Week’s College Football Underdog Bets

Throughout the college football season, we identify the top underdog against the spread. This isn’t about chasing popular picks—it’s about uncovering those matchups where the odds-makers might be off. We’ll have our picks available throughout the week, with the final updates or any additional plays posted by Friday.

Every pick is backed by a clear and concise analysis, focusing on the key factors that give this underdog the edge. No guesswork, just sharp insights rooted in data. Stick to the facts, avoid the noise, and trust the rationale behind each selection.

Week 15

Penn State +3.5. Penn State’s elite defense (16.2 PPG, 7th in total yards allowed) is built to slow Oregon’s explosive offense, especially through the air, where the Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in passing yards allowed. On offense, Penn State’s physical run game (194.7 YPG) can control the clock, keeping Oregon’s offense off the field. QB Drew Allar’s efficient play (71.7% completion, 8:1 TD/INT ratio) gives Penn State a steady hand to capitalize on Oregon’s pass defense, which isn’t invincible (326 yards to Ohio State). Combine that with a neutral field, and the Nittany Lions are in a great spot to cover.

Week 14

Rice Owls +5 (Won outright 35-28). South Florida’s explosive rushing attack (198.5 YPG, 21st nationally) faces its toughest road test yet against a Rice defense that has been quietly dominant at home since their opening loss to Sam Houston State. The Owls haven’t allowed any opponent over 140 rushing yards in their last four home games, going 3-1 in that stretch. Their near-miss against Charlotte illustrates their capability – they outgained the 49ers 463-304 and only lost by a point on a missed 40-yard field goal. While USF has put up impressive numbers lately (55+ points in consecutive games), those came against softer defenses than what they’ll face in Houston. Rice’s ability to control rushing attacks at home and generate significant yardage makes the points valuable.
Rich Crew’s Pick: Rice +5 — The Owls’ stout run defense at Rice Stadium (no team over 140 yards rushing in last four home games) and proven ability to outgain quality opponents suggests the market is undervaluing their home field advantage against USF’s somewhat one-dimensional attack.

Week 13

Indiana Hoosiers +10.5. Ohio State’s offensive line is reeling, with LT Josh Simmons out since the Oregon game and starting center Seth McLaughlin now lost for the season. The Buckeyes managed just 21 points against Nebraska and 20 at Penn State, and while their offense looked better in recent games, it came against weaker defenses like Purdue’s. Indiana enters this game undefeated and brings a top-10 defense in key metrics like yards per play and rush defense. While their performance last week wasn’t sharp, it’s understandable for a young team that may have been distracted with Ohio State looming. The double-digit points and OSU’s offensive line woes make Indiana the value play.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Indiana +10.5 — The Buckeyes’ offensive struggles and Indiana’s disciplined defense set up the underdog to keep this one within the number.

Week 11

Texas Tech +4.5 (Lost 27-41). Texas Tech has taken a couple of tough losses this season, but those were games where they got dominated on the ground – Baylor racked up 255 rushing yards, and Washington State rolled for 301. Colorado doesn’t pose the same threat in that department, ranking near the bottom in rushing yards per game (130th) and yards per carry (131st). The Red Raiders have also avoided a negative turnover ratio in seven of their nine games, with their only turnover issues arising in those two blowout losses. With 4.5 points on the table, Texas Tech looks primed to keep this one tight and could potentially pull the upset.

Week 10 Picks

Syracuse +3.5 (Won 38-31). Syracuse looks primed to keep this one close, especially if they can clean up from last week’s turnover-riddled performance against Pitt. The Orange gave away five turnovers in that loss, but a return to their usual ball security could turn things around against Virginia Tech, who’s struggled to force mistakes consistently. Syracuse’s defense held Pitt to just 217 total yards, showing strong resilience that matches up well against a Hokies offense averaging only 181.5 passing yards per game.

Virginia Tech’s defense has been porous against the pass, ranking 95th in opponent completion percentage and 101st in QB rating allowed. Syracuse’s offense has a chance to exploit this, especially if they avoid turnovers and set an early rhythm. With Syracuse catching +3.5 and Virginia Tech showing inconsistency in close matchups, this line offers solid value. Syracuse’s stout defense and VT’s softer pass D provide a setup where the Orange can cover—or even pull an upset.

Week 9 Picks

Buffalo Bulls +6.5 (Loss 16-47). The loss to Miami (OH) for Ohio wasn’t a shock, as the books were already leaning toward the RedHawks, setting them at -3.5 to tempt Ohio bettors. But the Bobcats’ struggles on the ground were telling—they managed only 110 rushing yards on 33 carries, their lowest output of the season. The Bulls’ run defense has shown some gaps, allowing 165 yards to NIU, 257 to UConn, and 209 to WMU in recent weeks, yet they catch a break here with Ohio losing their lead back, Anthony Tyus III, for the season. While they still have Parker Navarro (427 yards, 6.2 YPC), Ohio’s ground game won’t have its usual two-pronged attack.

Buffalo’s offense has been building momentum, putting up a season-high 41 points against WMU following a 30-point outing versus Toledo. With only three returning offensive starters, the Bulls’ early struggles are no surprise, but they’re starting to click at the right time. Plus, they’ve already shown they can pull off a road win, beating NIU earlier in the season. Getting 6.5 points here in what could be a close game or even an upset makes Buffalo a solid play.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Take Buffalo +6.5. With Ohio missing Tyus III and Buffalo’s offense finding its rhythm, the Bulls have a shot to keep this one tight, if not outright steal it.

Week 8 Picks

Auburn +4 (Pushed 21-17). Missouri’s 5-1 record is deceptive, with most of their wins coming against weak teams. Auburn, despite their 2-4 record, has shown flashes on defense, holding opponents to some of their lowest outputs this season. Missouri’s QB Brady Cook has struggled under pressure in SEC matchups, with the team allowing nine sacks in two games. Auburn’s defense could exploit that. Auburn’s biggest issue has been turnovers, but if they clean that up, this game will be much closer than expected. Missouri may also be missing key RB Nate Noel (check status), making their offense one-dimensional. Auburn’s defense and a solid run game give them the edge to cover the spread and possibly win outright.

Week 7 Picks

Rice +4 (Won outright 29-27). UTSA has struggled mightily on the road this season, losing all away games by ten or more points, albeit against tough comp. However, their two wins came against weak opposition in FCS Houston Christian and winless Kennesaw State, raising doubts about their ability to cover as a road favorite. On the other hand, Rice may not have a glowing record, but they are at home, and UTSA’s road woes present a solid opportunity for the Owls to cover or even win outright. Given that UTSA has failed to cover in all FBS matchups this year, this is a spot where Rice can capitalize on home-field advantage.

Did you know that you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the past five years if you’d been betting at discounted odds. Start betting smarter TODAY and make the switch to reduced juice sports betting at BetAnySports Sportsbook!