CFB Underdog of the Week Picks

The Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Tulsa as heavy favorites, but several factors suggest this game could be closer than the spread indicates. The Cowboys are dealing with significant injuries to their linebacker corps, with Collin Oliver out and Justin Wright questionable. Oliver, one of their best defensive players, leaves a substantial void in the middle of the field. His absence could be particularly impactful against Tulsa’s rushing attack and short passing game.

Tulsa’s performance against Arkansas State last week deserves attention. Despite being 9-point underdogs on the road, the Golden Hurricane held the lead midway through the fourth quarter before ultimately falling short. This competitive showing against a solid opponent demonstrates Tulsa’s ability to hang tough against favored teams.

Oklahoma State’s narrow victory over Arkansas (39-31) in Week 2 raises questions about their ability to cover such a large spread. The Cowboys’ defense allowed 31 points at home, and now they face Tulsa without one of their key defenders. Tulsa’s offense, which showed promise in their close loss to Arkansas State, could exploit these defensive vulnerabilities.

Moreover, Tulsa’s home-field advantage shouldn’t be underestimated. The Golden Hurricane typically plays tough at H.A. Chapman Stadium, and the crowd energy could help them stay competitive, especially if they can keep the game close early.

While Oklahoma State’s offense has been productive, averaging 41.5 points per game, Tulsa’s defense has shown flashes of effectiveness, particularly against the run (allowing only 3.3 yards per rush). If they can force the Cowboys into a one-dimensional game plan, it could keep the score within the 18.5-point spread.

Given these factors – Oklahoma State’s defensive injuries, Tulsa’s recent competitive performance, the Cowboys’ less-than-dominant showing against Arkansas, and Tulsa’s home-field advantage – there’s a strong case for taking Tulsa +18.5. While an outright upset might be a stretch, the Golden Hurricane has the potential to keep this game closer than the oddsmakers predict.