College Football Playoff: Clemson vs. Texas Picks and Best Bets

No. 12 Clemson Tigers (9-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
Date/Time: Saturday, December 21st, 2024, 4:00PM (EST)
Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium Austin, TX
TV: TNT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: CLEM +11.5/TEX -11.5
Moneyline: CLEM +340/TEX -450
Total: 51.5

One of the most intriguing first-round match-ups in this year’s College Football Playoffs will take place in Austin when the no. 5 Texas Longhorns collide with the no. 12 Clemson Tigers at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The visiting Tigers clinched their playoff opportunity by beating SMU in a 34-31 nail-biter in the ACC Championship. Despite a relatively easy schedule and no quality wins (outside of SMU), the Tigers have earned the automatic bid thanks to their ACC Championship, and once again, Head Coach Dabo Swinney has his Tigers’ in position for another potential playoff run. However, the Tigers will enter their first-round match-up as relatively large underdogs when they go into hostile territory against the Longhorns.

Unlike Clemson, who sealed their playoff fate during the last week of the season, the Longhorns have been a favorite to make the playoffs throughout the entire season. The Longhorns spent several weeks as the #1 ranked team in the country and had a terrific season, outside of the two losses that both came against Georgia. Despite those losses to the Bulldogs, Texas is still considered by many one of the favorites to go all the way. However, the Longhorns are going to need to play more consistent football, especially at the quarterback position, where QB Quinn Ewers has come under fire in recent weeks after several subpar performances. However, the Longhorns are committed to continuing with Ewers despite the fact that backup QB Arch Manning has looked very good in his limited playing opportunities.

Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Despite the controversy around Ewers and Manning, the Longhorns failed to run the football in their SEC Championship loss to Georgia. The Texas rushing attack has been a critical component of their success during the 2nd half of the season. RB Quintrevion Wisner was held to just 51 yards on 19 carries despite rushing for more than 300 yards over the final two games of the season. I mention this fact because Texas has struggled, as an offense, when they are unable to get the ground game going. I find that interesting because Clemson’s defense is very physical and will stand strong against the run. Despite the lack of superstar playmakers, Clemson is a very physical football team that has been tough to run against.

The problem for Clemson is that they have been very vanilla on the offensive side of the football. QB Cade Klubnik and RB Phil Mafah have combined to rush for more than 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. Klubnik also owns a relatively impressive stat line on the season that features 3,303 yards passing with 33 touchdowns and 5 picks. However, Clemson does not have elite speed or anything that Texas has not seen this year. In fact, the majority of Clemson’s statistics have been generated against less talented defenses, and I don’t believe the physicality of the Clemson offense will hold any major advantages against a very stout Texas defense. In fact, the Texas defense may hold the biggest advantage in this game and if they can create some turnovers or short field opportunities, it could help smooth out some of the inconsistency on the offensive side of the football.

Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

• Clemson is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• Clemson is 15-3 SU in the last 18 games.
• Clemson has hit the “under” in four of the last six games.
• Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last six games against SEC opponents.
• Texas is 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• Texas has hit the “under” in eight of the last nine games.
• Texas is 17-3 SU in the last 20 games.
• Texas is 13-1 SU in the last 14 games at home.

Clemson Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction

I believe both defenses hold the upper hand in their match-ups for this game. Additionally, I would not be surprised to see this game start relatively slowly due to both team’s focus on running the football against strong run-stop units. Needless to say, I think the under is clearly the play here!

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 51.5!

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