College Football Picks: Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) Point Spread Bet

Date/Time: Saturday, September 21st, 3:30 PM

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV:</br >

Point Spread: MIA OH +27/ND -27

Over/Under Total: 44

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In what will be just the third ever meeting between the teams, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish play host to the Miami RedHawks for a Saturday afternoon showdown in South Bend.  The Irish won the previous two matchups, with the most recent a 52-17 victory in 2017, and are a resounding favorite to continue that success this weekend.

UPHILL BATTLE

The RedHawks head to Indiana with an unfortunate 0-2 record after losing close-spread games against Northwestern and Cincinnati.  Hopes were high in Oxford going into this season, with Chuck Martin’s Miami team coming off an 11-3 campaign that saw them capture their second MAC championship in the past five years but continued struggles against non-conference opponents (now 13-49 in the last 62 games) have now dug the ‘Hawks an early hole in 2024 that may not be so easy to climb out of.  A difficult MAC schedule awaits them that includes matchups against the conference’s best teams with road trips to Toledo and Bowling Green while also hosting the Irish beating Northern Illinois Huskies as well.

SIX SHOOTER

Leading the way for the Miami offense is quarterback Brett Gabbert, who is now in his sixth season as an NCAA quarterback and is also the brother of two-time Super Bowl champion (backup) Blaine Gabbert.  Unfortunately for RedHawks fans the offense has struggled under Brett so far in 2024, currently ranking just 132nd in points scored and, 108th in total yards per game.  Things aren’t looking to get much easier this week with Xavier Watts, Benjamin Morrison, and the Notre Dame pass defense waiting for Gabbert in South Bend, though things are certainly not just his fault for their offensive struggles thanks to stagnant production from the Miami backfield thus far.

RUNNING ON EMPTY

 
Of the 134 teams in FBS college football, the Miami RedHawks rank second to last in rushing yards per game with a measly average of 32 yards per.  Expected starter Kenny Tracy is out for the season, while backup Keyon Mozee may lead the team in carries with thirteen but has just 24 yards so far.  The backfield-by-committee approach is clearly not working, and the team will hope that someone in the group will take the lead amongst Jordan Brunson, Dylan Downing, or receiving threat Kevin Davis.  This will likely not be that breakout week, with the team expected to be playing from behind against the Irish on Saturday, but at least my alma mater and a cakewalk victory await them the following week, with UMass on the schedule to end September.
 

DON’T FADE CADE

 
The most consistent and productive member of the Redhawk’s offense thus far has been senior wide receiver Cade McDonald, who leads all the teams’ receivers in receptions and yards while also being one of the only two players to catch a touchdown this year.  Reginald Virgil is the only other scorer and along with McDonald should see plenty of attention from Gabbert against a Notre Dame defense that ranks 24th nationally against the pass.  Offensively, the strategy should be a bit different on the other sidelines, as hopefully, for Irish fans, their coaching staff have finally realized the key to their offensive success is not through the air but on the ground.
 

PLAYING TO STRENGTH

 
The ability to make plays on the ground is a crucial part of quarterback Riley Leonard’s and in turn Notre Dame offensive success this season.  The weaknesses in his passing game are clear, whether you go by the vision test of just watching him play or look at some of his recent stats (his 5.6 yards per pass attempt rank 120th, he has yet to throw a touchdown pass through three games and hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in a game since 2022). Leonard’s inability to consistently throw the ball downfield limits the Irish’s play-calling options, but if he can continue to get the ball out accurately in close space to his increasing receiving options, it should help provide well enough offensive firepower to get past the struggling RedHawks on Saturday but will undoubtedly be tested a week later with the Louisville Cardinals waiting on deck.

 RUNNING TO SUCCESS

 
Notre Dame’s backfield duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price continue to pace the Irish offense, having rushed for a combined five touchdowns on the season and looking near unstoppable as they ran all over Purdue a week ago.  The Miami, Ohio, defense features a formidable and productive pair of linebackers awaiting Price and Love this weekend, with both Matt Solopek and Ty Wise each posting over 120 tackles and eight sacks a season ago.  Despite the defensive tandem the RedHawks have struggled thus far though as they rank 109th in rushing yards allowed per game this season and now are looking down the barrel at an Irish offense determined to run the ball early and often.  How the Irish are able to game plan around further drastic losses to their offensive line with starters Ashton Craig and Billy Schrauth, both injured a week ago, will be one of the biggest deciding variables on who ends up covering the spread this weekend in South Bend.
 

BEAUX KNOWS

 
Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame passing offense got a much-needed boost this week with the announced return of wide receiver Jordan Faison, who will make his season debut on Saturday after missing the first three games of the year due to injury.  Beaux Collins remains the top choice amongst the wideouts with team leads in reception and yards, but since he hasn’t played much with the better passing backup Steve Angeli, he and the rest of the starters are still all looking for their first touchdown catches on the season.  The addition of Faison, along with Collins, Jaden Greathouse, Jayden Thomas, and Mitchell Evans, should provide their quarterback with enough reliable options to get the Leonard-led passing game out of its current rut.
 

THE FINAL SELECTION

 
Miami, Ohio, ended last year on a six-game road winning streak, which was more than a surprise considering they had gone just 18-54 in their previous 72 away games.  The RedHawks began 2024 with a tough road loss to Northwestern and now journey to face a Notre Dame team more than motivated to win and win big.  The Irish embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois two weeks ago buried them into a BCS playoff hole that they might not be able to dig themselves out of, especially considering their schedule for the year looks even weaker with the November matchup against a feeble Florida State squad now lacking the luster it once had.  Marcus Freeman’s squad cannot suffer another misstep, and nothing short of a blowout win this weekend may not be enough to keep their glimmer of playoff hopes alive.  
 
Miami Ohio and their one-dimensional offense will be no match for Notre Dame this weekend and I am picking the Irish to get a resounding win and cover at home in South Bend on Saturday.
 

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -27