College Football Picks: Northwestern vs. Washington Point Spread Analysis

Northwestern Wildcats (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 7PM EST
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox Sports One

The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday in a Big Ten matchup from Husky Stadium. Both teams have had up-and-down moments to start the season. Northwestern bounced back from a double-overtime loss to Duke the previous week to beat Eastern Illinois, 31-7, on Saturday to go to 2-1. Washington, meanwhile, catching an early-season version of the Apple Bowl, fell in upset fashion at Lumen Field to Washington State on Saturday, 24-19, falling to 2-1 on the season. Who should we get behind in this one? Let’s get into it!

Challenges for the Huskies

First of all, the Huskies are palpably diminished, and first-year head coach Jedd Fisch might have an uphill battle this season with this Huskies bunch. Their first two games against Weber State and Eastern Michigan left little to glean. Against the Cougars, they got a 300-yard game from QB Will Rogers, along with WR Giles Jackson having a big game through the air. They got a boost on the ground from RB Jonah Coleman but strangely managed to hit the end zone only once on the day. And while their defense wasn’t a total disaster overall, it wasn’t impactful enough to steer things in their favor, and failing on a few key third-and-long sequences was really the turning point. A slew of penalties on both sides of the ball didn’t help.

While this might register less this week with the Huskies getting to stay in their stomping grounds to await their maiden voyage into Big Ten Conference play, this is nevertheless a challenging point of the season for this young team and new coaching staff. Coming down from the crescendo of last season, where they made it to the College Football Playoff, they now rebound off a loss to take on a completely unfamiliar opponent in a new conference. It just adds a layer of complexity to a team with a lot on its plate this season.

Good Spot for Huskies’ Conference Debut?

Northwestern hasn’t exactly jumped out of the gate, covering one of three spreads. Last week’s win over Eastern Illinois was simple enough. Losing to what looks to be a pretty good Duke team in OT is no disgrace, with their 13-6 win over Miami-Ohio not being impressive on paper, while still being the only spread they covered this season. David Braun looks to repeat the success he had last season, taking the Wildcats and getting them to 8 wins and a bowl win coming off a 1-11 season and a scandal leading to the firing of their previous longtime coach. They overcame a lot of adversity last season and I don’t expect their knack to rise above things to dissipate this year. But while a lot is made of exiled Pac-12 teams facing whole new sets of conditions amidst their new conferences, these are spots that could resonate badly with the established teams from the same conference. This is a time of the season where If Northwestern was on the road, they’d be somewhere like Minnesota or Illinois, not in the great northwest. This is unfamiliar territory for them.

While it was in an easier context, coach Braun had to like what he saw from QB Jack Lausch last week, a redshirt sophomore who was called into action after previous starter Mike Wright failed to impress in his first two games, with the offense often languishing. Lausch didn’t impress at first, initially struggling with the EIU defense—not a good sign. But soon, he got his arm and legs going and looked the part. I’d expect to see Lausch back in there this Saturday. And again, a lot can’t be taken away from allowing 7 points to an FCS opponent, but in giving up 39 combined points in three games with a double OT affair in the mix, we might be seeing a Northwestern defense that is coming together.

Edges for Northwestern

Before getting into the edges Northwestern has or doesn’t have, context is important. Washington is at home and despite a mass exodus of talent and coaching, it’s still a team that was among the final four teams standing last season. And Northwestern a few years ago was 1-11, and even if they rose their stock last season to be a slightly-upper mid-pack team in the Big Ten, there is a disparity in the overall success of these two programs, and there are no guarantees preventing a NW regression this season since we already know Washington is clearly diminished from a year ago.

Still, there is a greater sense of stability with this Northwestern team. Sure, Braun is only in his second year, but he has gained this team’s trust. Lausch is in his second season in the program, but hardly a familiar face behind center. But there are a lot of familiar faces on defense, and many of their most-utilized weapons on offense are players with a lot of experience in this program, including top back Cam Porter and key ball-catchers like Bryce Kirtz, AJ Henning, and others. Maybe Lausch can be that guy who gets them the ball, and we start to see a little more aerial punch to go along with their ground game.

Take the Points

Without a doubt, this is a big task for Northwestern in a setting where you might not be inclined to fancy them. I just think we’re dealing with enough of an imperfect Washington team to make laying double-digits in their first conference game against the competent Wildcats a tad out of range. I see it maybe being a struggle for Northwestern at times, with them doing enough to hang in there and cover the big number on the road. I’ll take the Wildcats.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Northwestern Wildcats plus 10.5 points.