College Football Picks: LSU vs. Texas A&M

LSU Tigers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, November 28th, 2020. 7:00PM (EST)

Where: Kyle Field College Station, T.X.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LSU +12/A&M -12 (BAS – Want to bet on games for less? You only lay -105 odds here, instead of the -110 that your bookie is socking you! HUGE savings! The smart way to bet!)

Over/Under Total: 64

For two straight weeks, the 5th ranked Texas A&M Aggies have had games postponed due to COVID-19. While the Aggies’ match-up with Tennessee was rescheduled to December 12th, last week’s planned meeting against Ole Miss has not been rescheduled as of yet. Both postponements were a result of COVID-19 complications within the Aggies program, including positive testing and several players falling within the “close contact” requiring quarantine. Luckily, the Aggies appear to be out of the woods barring any setbacks and will get the opportunity to host the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field this Saturday as 12 point betting favorites.

The visiting Tigers captured a 27-24 victory over Arkansas last week, which allowed them to keep the Golden Boot for the 5th consecutive season. Despite the needed victory, the Tigers are still 3-3 SU on the season and have vastly underachieved. The defending National Champions were expected to have a rebuilding season, but nobody in the SEC believed LSU would take such a big step backward that they would be hovering at the .500 mark halfway through the season. Now the Tigers will be double-digit underdogs for the first time since their meeting with Alabama in 2018 when they go into College Station with a 12 point spread in favor of the Aggies.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Analysis

I must admit that I originally thought this betting line would be even larger. I expected the Aggies to be listed in the 17 point range and was pleasantly surprised that the number is lower, which yields value to bettors. From a match-up standpoint, the Aggies have a surprising upside on both sides of the football. LSU’s offense is no longer the dangerous threat that it was a season ago, especially with each passing week that QB Myles Brennan remains sidelined.

Brennan suffered an abdominal muscle tear several weeks ago and has still not been able to return to the field. Backup freshman QB T.J. Finley guided the Tigers’ offense last week against the Razorbacks by hitting 27 of 42 passing for 271 yards with two scores. While it was Finley’s best performance thus far, I would be very hesitant to say he is ready for a big match-up with Texas A&M on the road. Head Coach Ed Orgeron still heavily focuses on the ground game, but the Tigers simply have not had much success in 2020 with tailbacks Tyrion Davis-Price and John Emery Jr. More importantly, the Aggies have been rock solid against the run, which means the Tigers’ best path towards moving the football relies on the inexperienced arm of a freshman quarterback.

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On the other side of the ball, the Aggies are equipped to attack LSU’s struggling defense. Veteran QB Kellen Mond has a surprisingly strong season throwing the football with 16 touchdowns and just two picks. Mond has typically been strongest on the ground with his running ability but has done a great job throwing the football this year. With that being said, I still expect the running ability combined with running back Isaiah Spiller to cause serious troubles for LSU’s defense. If the Tigers get frustrated attempting to stop the run, I expect big holes to open in the secondary, where LSU has been thrashed all season to the tune of 335 yards per game through the air, which is the 4th worst mark in college football. In each of LSU’s three losses this season, the Tigers have given point totals of 44, 45, and 48 against mediocre offenses from Mississippi State, Missouri, and Auburn. The Aggies have a better offense than any of those three teams, and I expect they will have similar scoring potential on Saturday.

LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends

• The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games but just 3-3 ATS on the season.
• The Tigers are 9-0 ATS against Texas A&M in the last nine meetings.
• The Tigers are also 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings against Texas A&M.
• The Aggies are 8-4 ATS (under Jimbo Fisher) in 12 games as double-digit favorites.
• The Aggies have hit the “under” in seven of the last ten games.
• The Aggies are just 1-4 ATS in the last five home games against LSU.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really like the Aggies’ potential in this match-up. I think they hold the advantage on both sides of the ball and have a high probability to cover with ease. Take Texas A&M -12. Bet your LSU vs. Texas AM picks LIVE after the game has already started using the web’s best live betting platform! It’s truly head and shoulders above the rest! –> Bovada Sportsbook (50% bonus, rebates on ALL your bets, fast hassle-free payouts!)