College Football Picks: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Louisville Cardinals (2-0, 2-0), 9/21/24

 When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 21

Where: L&N Stadium

TV: ESPN2

Betting odds

Point spread: GT +10.5/Lou -10.5 (Bet all your CFB games at -105 odds at BAS Sportsbook!)

Money line: Ga Tech +310/LV -390

Over/under: 57.5

The Louisville Cardinals made the ACC championship game last season and they think they’ve got a chance to do it again this season. Louisville kicks off its conference slate when it hosts 3-1 Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon at the place they used to call Cardinal Stadium.

The Cardinals are 2-0 on the season but they haven’t played anybody yet. Meanwhile, the Ramblin’ Wreck is 3-1 with two ACC games under their belts.

The teams played a wild and crazy game last season, with the underdog Yellow Jackets keeping things close and covering. Can they do it again on Saturday?

The Line

The Week 4 CFB betting market opened Louisville at -10 over Georgia Tech, with an O/U of right around 57.5. Early betting action added a hook to that line.

Georgia Tech Betting Preview

 
The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 on the season after dispatching VMI (FCS) last Saturday, 59-7. Georgia Tech, favored by 44 points, hit the board four of the first five times it touched the ball, led 38-0 at the half, then rested most starters for most of the second half and still pulled away.
 
In fact, the coaches agreed to cut the third and fourth quarters to 10 minutes each, which means the game did not complete the 55 minutes most sportsbooks require for a college football bet to be graded.
 
Tech out-gained the Keydets 572-104.
 
The Yellow Jackets opened this season with that 24-21 victory over Florida State over in Dublin, although that doesn’t look as good now as it did then, what with the Seminoles struggles. Georgia Tech then beat Georgia State 35-12, covering at -20, but then got out-played in a 31-28 loss at Syracuse.
 
The Wreck returned 13 starters this season from a team that finished 7-6 last year. Eight starters returned on offense, including QB Haynes King (6/1 TD/INT this season) and four along the offensive line. But only five starters returned on defense, and that unit gave up 515 yards to the Orange a couple of weeks ago.
 
Georgia Tech is playing against a wins O/U this season of 4.5 and it’s already 60 percent of the way toward that over. However, the schedule gets a little tougher from here on out, with games against North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami, North Carolina State and Georgia, and five wins ain’t no guarantee.

Louisville Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile the Cardinals are 2-0 on the season after beating Jacksonville State two Saturdays ago 49-14. Louisville then had last week off.
 
The Cardinals favored at -28 over the Gamecocks, scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions of the game, led 28-14 at the half, then tossed a shutout in the second half to secure the W and the cover.
 
Louisville out-gained JSU 610-290.
 
The Cardinals opened this season two weeks ago with a 62-0 walk in the park over Austin Peay (FCS), covering at -39.
 
Louisville returned 12 starters this season from a team that played 10-4 last season. They also brought in several transfers who started elsewhere last season, including QB Tyler Shough (20 starts at Oregon and Texas Tech).
 
The Cardinals made the ACC championship game last season and they should contend for a return trip this season. They’re also playing against a wins O/U of 8.5 and looking ahead at their schedule we like their chances of reaching that over.
 

Georgia Tech-Louisville Recent History

 
The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS against the Cardinals since these teams became conference rivals back in 2014. Most recently, back in Week 1 of last season, Louisville outlasted Georgia Tech 39-34 in a crazy game in Atlanta but the Wreck covered as seven-point dogs.
 
That game played over a total of 49.5 as the teams combined for over 950 yards of total offense.

College Football Betting Trends

 
Louisville is just 3-6 ATS when favored by 14 points or less under Coach Brohm.
 
Georgia Tech is 3-1 ATS when catching between 7-14 points under Coach Key.
 

Totals Report

 
Unders are 3-1 in Yellow Jackets games this season, which are averaging 54 total points.
 
Overs are 2-0 in Cardinals games, which are averaging 63 points.
 

Free College Football Pick

 
We give Georgia Tech an edge offensively, but Louisville has a much better defense. We love betting on the better defense in match-ups like this. We also expect the Cardinals to win the ground battle in this game. Louisville won this game last year, and a good case could be made that it’s better now than it was then, while we’re not sure we can say the same for the Yellow Jackets. We’re giving the points Saturday with the Cardinals.