College Football Picks: Can Missouri Overcome Odds Against Tennessee?

by Jay Horne | Last updated Nov 8, 2023 | cfb

No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. No. 14 Missouri Tigers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday, November 11th, 2023, 3:30 PM (EST)
Where: Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TEN -1/MIZZU +1
Moneyline: TEN -115/MIZZU -105
Total: 58.5

An underrated matchup this weekend occurs in Columbia, Missouri, where the No. 14 Missouri Tigers host the No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers at Faurot Field. The Tigers have been a surprise in the SEC this season, boasting a 7-2 SU record and 6-3 against the spread. Last week, Missouri competed closely with No. 2 Georgia, and despite the 30-21 loss, demonstrated that the program is genuinely advancing under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz.

This Saturday, Missouri will face another division powerhouse with the visiting Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee also holds a 7-2 SU record with a 6-3 record against the spread. They have won expected games and lost in anticipated defeats. In a matchup against a similarly talented team, it will be intriguing to see how Tennessee responds in a game they are favored to win.

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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Analysis

On paper, both teams present a similar matchup. The Volunteers’ offense is led by QB Joe Milton, who has thrown for 2,000 yards with 15 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. While Milton has been efficient, Tennessee primarily excels with running back Jaylen Wright and a backfield averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, amassing 227 yards per game on the ground, ranking 3rd in college football.

Missouri counters with strong skill positions as well. QB Brady Cook has passed for nearly 2,500 yards with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. RB Cody Schrader and WR Luther Burden III are rapidly nearing the 1,000-yard mark for the season. The Tigers’ offense, predominantly airborne, averages just under 300 yards per game but remains balanced. Both teams boast potent offenses capable of big plays and have exhibited strong defensive play. A notable difference is the size of the Tennessee defensive line, which has been effective in limiting opponents to just 97 yards per game on the ground.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Trends

Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
Tennessee has hit the “over” in 4 of their last 5 games.
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Missouri.
Missouri is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
Missouri is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against SEC opponents.
Missouri is 6-1 SU in their last 7 home games.
Missouri has hit the “over” in 5 of their last 7 games against Tennessee.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigers Prediction

This evenly matched contest presents a challenging prediction. While the statistics are similar, Missouri seems to be the more energized team, especially at home. If Tennessee cannot match this vigor, Missouri is likely to secure a significant victory.

Jay’s Pick: Take Missouri +1.