College Football Picks: Will the Broncos Cover the Spread Against the Thundering Herd?

Western Michigan Broncos (1-2 SU, ATS 1-1)  vs Marshall Thundering Herd (1-2 SU, ATS 2-0)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, September 28th
Location: Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: WMU +3.5/MU -3.5
Money Line: WMU +152/MU  -185
Over/Under: 54

Marshall is the -3.5 point favorite as they host Western Michigan at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, and the over/under line is currently at 54 points. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and both teams come in with a 1-2 record this season. The money line odds are +152 for Western Michigan and -185 for Marshall in this week five non-conference matchup.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Western Michigan Broncos and Marshall Thundering Herd did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-2. Against the spread, the Western Michigan Broncos went 3-0. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 48 points per game.

Western Michigan Broncos Recent Form:

Western Michigan improved to 1-2 for the season after a 59-31 victory over Bethune-Cookman. This game had no betting lines available.

The Broncos dominated early, taking a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Bethune-Cookman managed to close the gap, but Western Michigan still led 35-14 at halftime. The Broncos extended their lead to 49-21 by the end of the third quarter and finished with a 28-point win, scoring 59 points in total.

Western Michigan’s offense was unstoppable in their last game, racking up 677 total yards and 30 first downs. The Broncos’ ground game was particularly effective, with 372 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Jaden Nixon was the leading rusher, averaging 11.1 yards per carry and scoring two touchdowns.

In the passing game, Hayden Wolff completed 78.9% of his passes for 305 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception. Anthony Sambucci led the receiving corps with four catches for 103 yards and one touchdown.

Western Michigan’s defense will be looking to tighten up after allowing 31 points to Bethune-Cookman in their last game. The Broncos gave up 255 total yards, with most of the damage coming on the ground, where they allowed 139 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Against the pass, Western Michigan was more effective, holding Bethune-Cookman to just 116 yards on ten completions.

Away Injury Report

Marshall Thundering Herd Recent Form:

Marshall is looking to bounce back after a 49-14 loss to Ohio State on the road. The Thundering Herd, who were +40 point underdogs, managed to cover the spread, but they still lost by 35 points. The game’s total score of 63 points surpassed the over/under line of 56.5 points. This was Marshall’s second straight loss, dropping their record to 1-2 for the season.

Marshall kept the game close early, with the score tied at seven after the first quarter. However, Ohio State outscored them 21-7 in the second quarter, and the Thundering Herd were unable to score in the second half, leading to the 49-14 defeat. Marshall will look to regroup and get back on track in their next game.

Marshall’s offense, led by quarterback Stone Earle, put up 269 yards in their 49-14 loss to Ohio State. Earle completed 16 of 21 passes for 132 yards and a passer rating of 107.64. Elijah Metcalf was his top target, catching eight passes for 68 yards.

The Thundering Herd’s offense managed 18 first downs but was held to just 130 rushing yards. A.J. Turner led the ground attack with 32 yards on seven carries. Marshall’s lone touchdown came through the air, with Earle connecting with his receivers for a total of 139 passing yards.

Marshall’s defense will be looking to bounce back after allowing 570 total yards in their last game. Ohio State’s ground game was particularly effective, racking up 281 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Thundering Herd’s secondary also struggled, giving up 289 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Despite forcing one interception, Marshall allowed Ohio State to complete 18 of 26 pass attempts.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Western Michigan Broncos have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 4 points per game in these contests.
• In their last ten games at home, the Marshall Thundering Herd have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 19 points per game in these contests.
• The last ten games that Western Michigan was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 0-10 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Marshall Thundering Herd have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Free Pick

Coming in as +3.5 point dogs on the road, I like Western Michigan in this spot. Where I think the Broncos have the edge is on the offensive end of the ball. Both teams come in with 1-2 records, but I’m going with Western Michigan to come out of this one with the win. Go ahead and grab the Broncos on the money line, paying out at +152.