College Football Championship Betting Picks: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1 SU, 13-2 ATS)
College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Date/Time: Monday, January 20, 2025 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN

The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday. These are two teams who had to take the long way to get here, neither getting a bye and both having to win three playoff games to land in this spot. Notre Dame has beaten Indiana, Georgia, and then in their last game on January 9, beat Penn State, 27-24, in the semifinal game. Ohio State, meanwhile, beat Tennessee, unbeaten Oregon, and then on the 10th, a 28-14 win over Texas to get a chance to play for it all in Atlanta. Let’s break it down!

The General Feeling

Ohio State is led by QB Will Howard, with the Fighting Irish led by Riley Leonard. Within that might not be many clues, but there is some separation when we start discussing each team’s supporting cast where the Buckeyes have the more-apparent firepower. They’ve been excellent on both sides of the ball through three games of this expanded playoff format. And with that coming against teams like top-ranked Oregon and then Texas, it carries with it some extra weight.

Perhaps it is a bit odd that after the tiresome process of whittling the entirety of the FBS down to two teams, these teams are now in their fourth game after the regular season concluded to have a point spread this wide. As of press-time, it’s bigger than a touchdown, as one has to wonder are the Buckeyes more than a TD better than the next-best team in college football. Still, it’s hard to argue with that margin with a team that looks to have peaked at just the right time. That doesn’t mean Notre Dame can’t win, and other than that freak loss in early September, all they’ve done is win. Ohio State is unquestionably a fine team, deserving of all their accolades and the margin in which they’re favored. They still fall a bit short of that invulnerable team that is above reproach. Not that it ended up costing them much in the end, but they ended the regular season with a dud against Michigan that makes you think a stance against them isn’t so unfathomable.

Matchup Issues for the Irish

In the semifinal, we saw Texas in the game and keeping Ohio State from exploding until that memorable Jack Sawyer play sealed the deal. Maybe it’s not so crazy of an idea that the Notre Dame defense can find similar success in this game. But after seeing the Longhorns struggle so much to gain any foothold with their running-game, how optimistic can one be about the Irish rushing attack in this game? Between QB Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price, they’ve run for over 2700 yards and 40 touchdowns. Not that Leonard spreading it around to his different targets aerially isn’t a key part of a Notre Dame winning recipe in this matchup, but if their run-game languishes, it sets up for a long day for Notre Dame. And from what we’ve seen from this Ohio State defense, it’s a distinct possibility.

It’s unclear whether Notre Dame’s defense matches up well enough or plays the kind of style that is going to result in a tamping down of the Ohio State offense. Howard is working with two star backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, along with damage-makers in the passing-game that Notre Dame can’t equal in Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and others. For Ohio State to win this game, they have to basically be themselves and let their superior weaponry take over the game. Notre Dame, on the surface, is operating with a thinner margin for error—where they have to resourcefully and cagily navigate their way to win by playing mistake-free football, winning the turnover battle, getting some big plays either on defense or special teams, getting some help from a Buckeyes team that undermines itself, etc. And while doable, it’s not the most proactive winning stance you can have on a team.

Major Questions

Can Notre Dame run the ball, and can their line keep the Ohio defense from harassing their quarterback into ineffectiveness? It’s really the linchpin of the whole game, where the Irish face dire results if they can’t keep their own defense off the field and dictate some tempo on the ground. Some of the big plays they’ve made aerially over the course of this playoff are a good sign, and they’ll take all that they can get. Ohio State’s defense seems to ratcheting up its form. Their stoutness and overall playmaking ability are increasing with each chapter of this potential title run. But it’s not like it hasn’t been done, as we saw with the season-ending loss against the Wolverines. It’s just with the personnel issues on the ND offensive line, is this when they truly pay a price that ends up being too steep?

Can we sometimes miss the boat when looking too deeply within the results? You can say the Buckeyes have been more impressive. You can point to the higher quality of their opposition and the more impressive results they registered on their way to this spot. And sure, both sides of the ball for the Buckeyes are littered with future NFL talent. But it’s still a juicy spread for the Fighting Irish, a team that has gone since week two without a loss, enduring a tough road in the CFP to end up in a position most doubted they could reach. They are well-coached and disciplined, but something tells me it’s not going to be easy to dispose of them on Monday night.

Take the Points

This is one of those picks where if you’re wrong, you might be wrong by a lot. The flip side to that is if Notre Dame can start quickly, not fall behind, and will themselves into this game, we could have a tug-of-war where having 8 points feels really good. Ohio State might check almost all the boxes when doing a down-the-line appraisal of their individual team attributes. It’s just that collectively, I think Notre Dame is less than 8 points worse than Ohio State. I’ll take the Fighting Irish and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish plus 8 points.

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