College Football Betting: Expert Picks Against the Spread

This week’s plays:
Miss -41′
(Yes, Chalk Boy rides again.)
Pittsburgh +3, -117

Last week, I laid major wood using Oklahoma -41′ as my first investment play of the season, based on a week-one-only system.
(I stayed off the second game that qualified, Ohio State, and it’s a good thing I did, as they failed to cover.
You don’t have to bet every game.
Sometimes, it’s better to just bank a profit and come back next week.)

Including the FBS vs FCS games in that week one system, this year’s record came in at 12-7, a very profitable 63%.
That makes four of five years with a winning record for that play and one year at break even 1-1.
Definitely looking forward to using it again next year.

Tennessee was one of those FBS/FCS games, and I used it as one of my two forum picks, along with Northwestern, giving me a 2-0 start to the college football season in the forum.
And this weekend’s Ole Miss pick comes from the same situational spot Northwestern was in last week.

Yes, the number is high.
And yes, I don’t have a lot of data to work with yet since it’s only week two (this particular system went 1-0 last week.)
And this is the first year I’ve used this system in football, so it’s untested on the gridiron.
But it worked very well on the courts in college basketball and the NBA last year, and it’s already 1-0 in college football, so let’s see if it can cross over into football and be profitable there, too.

As I’ve said before, if you’re going to lay a big spread, you want to do it with a coach who is not afraid to run it up against bottom feeders, and Lane Kiffin is one of those guys.
Here are a few samples over the last few years:

• 54-17 against Austin Peay in 2021
• 61-21 vs Tulane 2021
• 59-3 vs C Ark 2022
• 73-7 vs Mercer 2023

And if you’re concerned he might go soft in 2024, he kicked the crap out of Furman last week, 76-0.

His opponent this week is Middle Tennessee State. They started the season off with a win vs FCS opponent Tennessee Tech, barely surviving by TD, 32-25.
Scheduling an FCS lamb to slaughter as a confidence booster in week one is not going to help the Blue Raiders in week two, ‘Ole Miss is an entirely different animal.

Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart was an absolute assassin last week, completing 22 of 27 passes for 81% and 5 TDS with zero interceptions,

His counterpart Nicholas Vattiato threw for just 210 yd with one TD and one interception – against an FCS opponent!

The Rebels were good for 529 yards in the air for six TD’s last week, and another 243 yards on the ground, for a combined 772 yards and ten TD’s.

Last year, MTN faced a top-level SEC opponent (like Mississippi) to start their season. The result?
A 56-7 beating.
Look for a similar result this week.

I’m also paying 7 cents more to get Pittsburgh to +3. Both of my WF (Wrong Fav) systems say Pittsburgh should be the favorite.
Again not a lot of data, but WF1 was 3-0 last week, all Rd teams like Pittsburgh this week. WF2 is 3-3 on Rd games. What sealed the deal for me on this one is I had one game last week in the same situation, both systems picked the same WF.
They determined the books had it wrong, making Houston -3; they had UNLV as the Fav.
Final score? UNLV 27-7.

Until I get more data, I’m just going to stick with what worked last week and TV/action bets only.

Record (Sept) 0-1 (WNBA)
College football overall 2-0