Clemson vs. Pitt: Fade the Public with This Expert CFB Pick

Clemson Tigers (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, 6-3), 11/16/24
When: noon ET Saturday, Nov. 16
Where: Acrisure Stadium
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Clem -10/Pitt +10
Moneyline: Clem -360/Pitt +280
Over/under: 54

The Clemson Tigers continue their pursuit of another ACC championship and possibly a berth in this season’s College Football Playoff when they visit Pittsburgh to play the Panthers Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers own two defeats already this season, which for them is a lot, but they’re still alive in the battle for berths in the conference championship game. And the ACC champion is basically guaranteed a spot in the upcoming expanded CFP.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, after starting so well this season, recently got knocked out of contention in the ACC. So the Panthers are relegated to playing spoiler Saturday.

Pitt also might play without its starting quarterback.

The Line

The CFB Week 12 betting market opened Clemson at -9 for Saturday, with an O/U of right around 56. Early betting action bumped the Tigers to -10 while dropping that total to 54.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should only be -5. But that doesn’t take into account the Pittsburgh QB situation.

Clemson Betting Preview

The Tigers just bounced back from a bad loss to Louisville two weeks ago to win at Virginia Tech last Saturday 24-14. Clemson, favored at -5.5 at a tough place to play, trailed 7-0 at the half on a blocked field goal returned for a Hokies score. But the Tigers scored the first 24 points of the second half to take control, on their way toward the victory and the cover.

Clemson out-gained Virginia Tech 378-228, out-rushed the Hokies and won time of possession by a 37:23 split.

So the Tigers have out-gained each of their last eight opponents and out-rushed their last five foes.

Clemson opened this season with that bad loss to Georgia, then won six straight. The Tigers then laid an egg in a 33-21 home loss to Louisville, before bouncing back last week.

At 7-2 overall Clemson is only ranked No. 20 in this week’s CFP standings but at 6-1 in ACC play the Tigers are basically tied for first place with 5-0 Southern Methodist. However, the Tigers do not control their own destiny; they need a win Saturday and a game or two worth of help from elsewhere over the next couple weeks to make the conference championship game.

But if they can make that ACC championship game the winner is certain to make the CFP.

Pittsburgh Betting Preview

Meanwhile the Panthers own a two-game losing skid after falling at home to Virginia last Saturday 24-19. Pittsburgh, favored at -7.5, led the Cavaliers 13-7 at the half. But the Panthers gave up the first 14 points of the second half, later lost a 2-point conversion that would have tied the game to a penalty and couldn’t recover.

Pitt got out-gained by Virginia 340-292. So the Panthers have been out-gained by each of their last three opponents.

Pittsburgh started 7-0 this season but lived a bit dangerously, with close decisions over Cincinnati, West Virginia, North Carolina and Cal. The Panthers then took their first loss of the season down at SMU 48-25, then lost to UVA.

At 7-2 overall Pitt is already bowl-eligible, after missing out last season. But at 3-2 in conference play the Panthers are now probably out of the running in the ACC.

On the injury front Pitt QB Holstein got knocked out of last week’s game in the third quarter, did not return and is listed as questionable for Saturday.

These teams last met three seasons ago, a 27-17 Panthers home win.

By the Numbers

Clemson is averaging 473 YPG this season, 199 rushing. Defensively the Tigers are holding opponents to 337 YPG, 129 rushing. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 53rd-toughest schedule in college football.

Pitt is averaging 428 YPG on offense, 151 on the ground, while allowing 361 YPG, 110 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 59 schedule.

Common Opponents

These teams have played one common opponent this season, Virginia. Clemson out-gained the Cavaliers by 193 yards in a 48-31 win while Pitt got out-gained by the Cavs by 48 yards in a 24-19 loss.

Totals Report

Unders are 6-3 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 61 total points.

Unders are 5-4 in Panthers games, which are averaging 62 points.

Free College Football Pick

Clemson is the better team in this match-up, the team playing better ball as of late and the team with more to play for. We also expect the Tigers to win the ground battle in this game. We like betting good teams on the road because we believe home-field advantage is overrated and it keeps the spread a bit more amenable. We’ll take the Tigers, minus the points.

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