Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Predictions ATS 9/4/23

Clemson Tigers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Monday, September 4, 2023 at 8PM EDT

Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: CLEM -13/DUKE +13 (Bovada – Home of the best live betting platform online!)

Over/Under Total: 55.5

The Clemson Tigers come to Durham for a Monday night ACC season-opening showdown with the Duke Blue Devils. For week one, this is a pretty impactful conference game, with Clemson coming off an 11-win season, while Duke really turned things around in Mike Elko’s first season, winning nine games in 2022. That signaled Duke’s best season in a decade and maybe one of their best overall. But whereas nine wins is a bonanza for Duke, they now catch a Clemson squad that’s coming off an 11-win campaign that many felt was a letdown. Who can get us the cover in this interesting conference battle on Monday?

Perception vs. Reality

On the surface, many casual observers of the sport will view this as a mismatch. It has been for many years. Clemson is the perennial national power, while Duke’s football program has almost no glory of which to speak. They see what seems to be a negotiable point spread for the Tigers, and nature takes its course. To that point, however, if Clemson is indeed a national power, they should be able to put a thorough beating on Duke. There is a possibility that people have been slow to acknowledge the not-so-subtle shifts in power in the ACC, namely how Clemson hasn’t really been the same national power since their halcyon days of 2015-19, and this is not the same hapless Duke squad.

The Blue Devils are an interesting study, being a 9-win team whose four losses were all of the one-score variety. There are some, and backers of Clemson in this game may be among them, who feel there was something a bit illusory about Duke’s ascendance last season, as they seemed fortunate in drawing opponents who were either weak or at just a bad part of their season. And they did lose to teams like Kansas, Georgia Tech, and Pitt, which doesn’t paint the best picture. Duke coach Elko is more of a defensive guy, but he really got a difference-maker in year one with QB Riley Leonard. He is back and can be a real creator with a nice set of legs. Still, a slight coming-down-to-earth Duke team could be in trouble against a Clemson bunch looking to begin a season that signals their return to national prominence.

We need to pick a storyline in this game. And something tells me there are two extremes that are overly stark. One is that Clemson is going to return to glory, and that’s all there is to it. And anything close to that will be too much for a Duke team some suspect was a little bit smoke-and-mirrors last year. And it’s true that Duke lost a lot of its O-line, which could be picked apart by this Clemson defensive front. It’s also true a lot of their wins were against poor opposition. But even if you just think Clemson won’t be this unhinged football machine stomping everyone into the ground and that Duke found some real answers with Elko last season, I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Blue Devils’ case.

Range of Expectations

With both teams, what we will end up seeing has a wide span of possibilities. Duke got good play from Leonard while seeing Elko’s handiwork on defense pay off with some nice stoutness and a real ball-hawking “D.” Some regression seems possible. But even if not, there is still a talent differential in Clemson’s favor that is hard to ignore. Cade Klubnik assuming full-time quarterbacking duties should help, as will getting a new offensive coordinator to put a new look on a Clemson offense that was oddly stagnant aerially. Without knowing for sure, you’d assume they have to be better.

Defensively might be where the cover is decided for Clemson. That line is going to be tough, and the 1-2 punch at linebacker with Jeremiah Trotter, Jr. and Barrett Carter is a difference-making element that will make it hard on this Duke offense. One could point to that Clemson secondary that was one of the weak points of last season’s team. But what can Duke do about it? They have Leonard, but do they have enough around him to test whatever shortcomings might be on this Clemson defense? Can their revamped line make it stick? Can Duke benefit from the fact that despite an O-line taking hits, a ton of other people are back?

What to Expect

I think one has to buy at least a little into the idea that 2023 could be a little tougher on the Blue Devils. Getting rid of the divisions in the ACC didn’t do them any favors, and it’s going to be harder to finesse a big season. Even if you think Clemson isn’t fantastic and that Klubnik might be a level or two short of what the Clemson faithful are claiming, Duke didn’t see anything close to this last season, which is the source of all their optimism. Against a team as strong in the trenches as the Tigers, Duke could be seeing a whole different spectrum of results on both sides of the ball. And when that Clemson front-seven starts zeroing in on this line and Duke’s lack of difference-making weaponry, it could get ugly.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

The thing about this game is that picking Clemson needn’t be an endorsement of their national hopes this season. Even if you feel their overall hopes are dicey, the talent differential in this game is hard to ignore. Time will tell, but it almost seems like the point spread represents the rosy end of the spectrum of possibilities for the Blue Devils. After all, it’s a little easier to picture a Clemson win by 30 than it is to envision Duke winning by a field goal, isn’t it? That’s not to say a Duke team that really boosted their stock last season can’t keep this close, but the majority of possible outcomes seem to favor Clemson winning by two TDs or more. I’ll take the Tigers.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Clemson Tigers minus 13 points.

Football season is here! Don’t re-deposit and get NOTHING! Boost your bankroll with a massive 100% real cash bonus from one of many cool bookies on our sportsbook bonuses list!