Citrus Bowl Predictions: Iowa vs. Tennessee

No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) vs. No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Betting Preview
Date/Time: Monday January 1st, 2024. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Camping World Stadium Orlando, FL.
TV: ABC

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: IOWA +8/TENN -8
Moneyline: IOWA +265/TENN -315
Total: 36

While the majority of college football fans’ focus will be on the College Football Playoffs on New Year’s Day, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl will kick off in the early window with an intriguing match-up between the no. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes and the no. 21 Tennessee Volunteers who will meet inside Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Hawkeyes are fresh on the heels of a solid 10-3 campaign that featured a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game. Despite their 26-0 loss to Michigan in the conference championship, the Hawkeyes have already captured their 2nd 10-win season in the last three years and will have the opportunity to end the season with some momentum going into 2024.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers will enter this New Year’s Day match-up as 8-point betting favorites over the Hawkeyes. I imagine the thinking behind this betting line is centered around the fact that the Vols offense has a very high ceiling compared to Iowa’s old-school traditional low-scoring rushing style offense. However, I would also point out the fact that Tennessee’s offense has been extremely inconsistent throughout the season, including losses in two of their last three games where they were held to 10 points or less. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see if the Vols can get the offense in rhythm behind QB Joe Milton or if Iowa’s defense will end up being the story of this contest!

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis

For Iowa to capture their 4th 11-win season in the program’s history, the Hawkeyes will need to lean on the defense. The Volunteers will be without their top two rushers in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small, who have both declared to enter the NFL Draft. As a result, the Vols will likely resort to the passing attack behind Joe Milton III. Milton finished the year completing 64% passing for 2,813 yards with 20 touchdowns and five picks. Milton did a good job of avoiding turnovers, but the entire Tennessee offense relied heavily on the rushing attack throughout the year. Therefore, this could be a slightly different offensive approach if they are not able or do not have the confidence with their remaining running back room.

The good news for Iowa is that the majority of their defense from the regular season is still intact. Both Tennessee and Iowa have seen a lot of activity in the transfer portal since the end of the year. However, the Hawkeyes defense is mainly intact and they have been fairly solid throughout the year, holding opponents to just 172 yards per game, which ranks 8th in the FBS. Personally, I believe Iowa’s defense will play well from a match-up perspective. However, the concerns surround the Iowa offense that produced just 16.6 points per game this season despite their 10-3 record.

The Hawkeyes offense was the 4th worst scoring offense in the FBS, and this will be the last game for Offensive Coordinator Brian Ferentz, who is the son of longtime Head Coach Kirk Ferentz. With that being said, I highly doubt we will see any formidable change in the offensive play calling in this family-ending affair. As a result, the Hawkeyes’ one-dimensional offense will try to run straightforward into a talented Tennessee run defense that allowed just 113 yards per game despite playing some of the best-rushing offenses in the country. Needless to say, this is not an ideal scenario based on how Iowa’s offense operates.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends

• Iowa is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games.
• Iowa has hit the “under” in each of the last 8 games.
• Iowa is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
• Iowa is 1-5 SU in the last 6 bowl games in January.
• Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games.
• Tennessee has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 6 games.
• Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games as the betting favorite.
• Tennessee is 5-1 SU in the last 6 bowl games.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Prediction

I don’t have much faith in this Iowa offense against a solid Tennessee run defense. I believe Vols Head Coach Josh Heupel will find creative ways to move the football. I would not be surprised if this is another low-scoring game but I believe the Vols will cruise to victory.

Jay’s Pick: Take Tennessee -8