Cincinnati vs. Colorado Pick ATS: Barking Dog Alert?

Cincinnati Bearcats (5-2 SU, ATS 4-1-1)  vs Colorado Buffaloes (5-2 SU, ATS 4-1)
Date: 10:15 EST Saturday, October 26th
Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: UC +4.5/CU -4.5
Money Line: UC +160/CU  -195
Over/Under: 57.5

ESPN will be covering the week nine matchup between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Colorado Buffaloes, set to kick off at 10:15 ET from Folsom Field in Boulder. Both teams enter the game with a 5-2 record this season. The Buffaloes are favored by -4.5 points, and the over/under line is currently at 57.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Cincinnati Bearcats and Colorado Buffaloes did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Cincinnati Bearcats have a record of 2-1. The Cincinnati Bearcats also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 64 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Cincinnati Bearcats Recent Form:

Cincinnati enters Week 9 against Colorado with a 5-2 record and is ranked 34th in our power rankings. They have a 93.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. On the road, the Bearcats are 2-1, and they’ve been favored in four of their seven games this season.

Their average scoring margin is +10.7 points, and they are 4-1-1 against the spread. Cincinnati is 2-0-1 ATS on the road and 2-1 at home. As the favorite, they’ve gone 3-1 ATS this season.

Cincinnati’s over/under record is 1-5, with their games averaging 49.3 points. The average over/under line for their games is 54.3 points, and this week’s line is set at 57.5 points.

Heading into week 9, Cincinnati’s offense is averaging 30 points per game, placing them 44th in the nation. However, they are ranked 15th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has thrown for 1,928 yards, completing 67.2% of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating is 104.

Cincinnati ranks 18th in passing completions and 24th in passing yards, averaging 279 yards per game. They convert 46.2% of their third downs. Corey Kiner leads the rushing attack with 598 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns. Xzavier Henderson has 41 catches for 538 yards and four touchdowns.

Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 19.3 points per game this season, ranking 25th nationally. In their recent game, they gave up 14 points to Arizona State, allowing 191 rushing yards on 40 carries and 155 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 167.9 rushing yards per game against Cincinnati, ranking 123rd and 228.7 passing yards, with a passer rating of 91.2.

Away Injury Report

Colorado Buffaloes Recent Form:

Colorado enters Week 9 with a 5-2 record, ranked 24th in our power rankings. They have a 99.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and an 8.6% chance to win the Big 12. The Buffaloes are 3-1 on the road and 0-1 at home this season.

Against the spread, Colorado is 4-1, with a +9.1 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored just once this season, going 1-0 ATS as the favorite and 3-1 as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 57.5 points. Colorado’s games have averaged 52.9 points, with an average over/under line of 56.8 points. Their over/under record stands at 2-3.

Heading into week 9, Colorado ranks 25th in our offensive power rankings and is 39th in scoring, with 31 points per game. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 2nd in completions and 6th in passing yards, averaging 324 yards per game. They are 9th in passing attempts and 5th in completion percentage, converting 71.4% of their throws.

Shedeur Sanders leads the team with 2,268 passing yards and a 72.2% completion rate. He has thrown 19 touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 111. Travis Hunter is the top receiver, with 51 catches for 604 yards and six touchdowns. Colorado’s run game has struggled, averaging just 75.7 rushing yards per game.

Colorado’s defense put together a strong performance in their latest game, allowing just 7 points in a 34-7 win over Arizona. They held the Wildcats to 245 total yards, including 107 rushing yards on 34 attempts and 138 passing yards, while also forcing an interception.

For the season, Colorado is giving up 21.9 points per game, ranking 38th nationally. Opponents are averaging 153.9 rushing yards per game and 213.4 passing yards, completing 64.7% of their throws with a passer rating of 92.3.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Cincinnati Bearcats offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 25. Cincinnati posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 5-4-1 ATS.
• Across their last five home contests, Colorado has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 27 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Cincinnati Bearcats have gone 4-5-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Colorado Buffaloes have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight-up mark of 3-0.

Free Pick

Both teams come into this one with 5-2 records, and both have been really good from a betting perspective, with Cincinnati sitting at 4-1-1 vs the spread compared to 4-1 for Colorado. But I like Cincinnati’s chances to go into Boulder and put up some points. The way I’m playing this one is to take Bearcats at +4.5.

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