Charlotte vs. Tulane: Can the 49ers Cover the Spread?

Tulane Green Wave (6-2 SU, ATS 5-2)  vs Charlotte 49ers (3-5 SU, ATS 4-3)

Date: 7:30 EST Thursday, October 31st

Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: TU -16.5/Char +16.5

Money Line: TU -765/Char  +521

Over/Under: 55.5

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ESPN will be covering the week 10 matchup between the Tulane Green Wave and the Charlotte 49ers, which is set to kick off at 7:30 ET from Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte. Tulane comes in with a 6-2 record, while Charlotte is 3-5 on the season. The over/under line is currently 55.5 points, and Tulane is the heavy favorite at -16.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Tulane Green Wave and Charlotte 49ers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Charlotte 49ers have the leg up at 3-0. The Charlotte 49ers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 79 points per game leading to an over/under record of 3-0.

Tulane Green Wave Recent Form:

Tulane enters Week 10 against Charlotte with a 6-2 record and a 33rd-place spot in our power rankings. They are already bowl-eligible and have a 49.8% chance of winning the American Athletic Conference. Tulane also has a 10.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to our projections.

The Green Wave is 5-0 as the favorite this season, and they have a +18.2 average scoring margin. Against the spread, Tulane is 5-2, with a 4-1 record as the favorite.

For this week’s game, the over/under line is set at 55.5 points. Tulane’s games have averaged 62.8 points, and their over/under record is 5-2, with an average margin of +9.0 points per game.

Heading into week 10, Tulane’s offense averages 40.5 points per game, ranking 8th nationally. They are also 8th in rushing attempts, averaging 41.6 per game, and 10th in rushing yards, with 218.9 per game. Makhi Hughes leads the ground attack with 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Tulane is 31st in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 1,583 yards and 14 touchdowns, with three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 116. Tulane ranks 8th nationally in passer rating and 12th in third-down conversions, converting 48.4% of their attempts. Mensah has completed 64.2% of his passes. Mario Williams leads the receiving corps with 465 yards and three touchdowns.

Heading into this week’s matchup, Tulane’s defense ranks 46th nationally, allowing 22.2 points per game. They’ve given up 226.2 passing yards per game (99th) and 121.1 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have a 75.6 passer rating against Tulane, completing 60% of their throws.

In their last game, Tulane allowed 37 points and 525 total yards, including 449 passing yards. They held North Texas to just 76 rushing yards on 25 attempts.

Away Injury Report

Charlotte 49ers Recent Form:

Charlotte enters Week 10 against Tulane with a 3-5 record, ranked 113th in our power rankings. They have a 19.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, the 49ers are 1-1, while they’ve gone 1-4 on the road this season.

Despite not being favored in any game, Charlotte has a 4-3 record against the spread, with an average scoring margin of -10.6 points per game. They’ve covered the spread in three of their five road games.

The over/under line for this week is 55.5 points. Charlotte’s games have averaged 57.9 points, with their over/under record at 5-2. Their average line this season has been 50.6 points.

Charlotte’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 23.6 points per game, which ranks 72nd in the nation. They are also 112th in third down conversions, with a success rate of only 31.1%, and their passing game ranks 114th in passer rating. Heading into week 10, we have them ranked 96th in our offensive power rankings.

Deshawn Purdie leads the 49ers with 869 passing yards and a passer rating of 97. He has thrown five touchdowns and two interceptions. Charlotte is averaging 219.1 passing yards per game. Cartevious Norton has rushed for 391 yards and four touchdowns, while O’Mega Blake has 419 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Charlotte’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 34.2 points per game. In their recent game against Memphis, they gave up 33 points, allowing 427 total yards, including 215 rushing yards on 47 attempts and 212 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 187.9 rushing yards per game against Charlotte, while quarterbacks have posted a 93.3 passer rating, completing 57.8% of their passes for an average of 230.8 yards per game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Tulane has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 9-1, averaging 34 points per game.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Charlotte has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Charlotte has an ATS mark of 2-1 while going 1-2 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Tulane Green Wave have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight record was 5-0.

Free Pick

Tulane comes into this one as the heavy favorite on the road vs Charlotte. There is no doubt that Tulane is the more well-rounded team, but heading on the road in a short week is a tough task. And although I like the Green Wave to win, I don’t see them covering at -16.5. I’m taking Charlotte to cover the spread as a home dog.

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