CFPC Predictions: Washington vs. Michigan Pick ATS

Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d have saved over the years doing so! TONS! Take a few minutes and make the switch to reduced juice betting at BetAnySports! You’ll be so glad you did!

The Washington Huskies face the Michigan Wolverines in the College Football Playoff Championship game at NRG Stadium on Monday. This is for all the marbles—two 13-0 teams from rival conferences duking it out for the national championship. Both teams went through a lot this season, braving through difficult schedules to somehow arrive at this spot unbeaten. In the College Football Playoff semifinal, we saw what each team does well, with Michigan riding their clutch play on both sides of the ball to an overtime 27-20 win over Alabama, while the Huskies came out on the right side of yet another battle, beating the favored Texas Longhorns, 37-31. Who do we get behind this week as the college football season comes to a close?

Risk Being Wrong About Washington Again?

Those who found it wise to forecast that the Huskies would come up short on the basis of eking out so many tight wins within their conference have been left grasping for straws in recent weeks. First was the rematch with Oregon, and again with the semifinal win over Texas. People say Washington can’t continue to see their luck hold up or that a defense that looks terrible on paper will betray them against the better offenses in college football. It just isn’t happening. And a lot of those things will come back into the fold this week against the 13-0 Wolverines. People will point to a lack of dominance and a defense that should be duck soup against elite offenses, but should we be looking at it a different way?

Maybe we’ve belatedly arrived at a point where we focus on what the Huskies do well. First of all, they’ve really taken to their head coach, who has turned this thing around in a dramatic way. When you have a top-end QB like Michael Penix, Jr. slinging darts all around the field, you’re never going to be totally out of it, especially with the chemistry he has with wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan. And while you could say some of the close games Washington had resulted in a lack of defensive clutch play where opponents were allowed to creep back into games, there’s something to be said for their ability to manufacture victory. That in itself is a skill, and when it’s on the line, we see a strong collective effort from both sides of the ball. When getting to this level, where you’re dealing with two proven 13-0 teams, maybe Washington, who seems to have a battle on their hands every game they play, isn’t the drawback, some think.

Breaking it Down

Michigan was a team many liked to be in the CFP, with players sticking around with this goal being in mind. Over the course of the season, we saw a potential scandal have the looks of something that could send this team off-center. So, when we talk about the team mentality of Washington and how they overcome things, we need to acknowledge how the Wolverines bonded this season and how Jim Harbaugh’s squad is a cohesive unit. But as the favorite and the more-ballyhooed team heading into the season, they might be feeling a little more pressure than a Washington team not many suspected could get this far and are still suspected by many to lose.

Michigan knows it can’t keep pace with an offense like Washington’s if they’re clicking, hence their need to slow this game down and withstand the air attack. They can’t let the Huskies get the jump on them and then ask JJ McCarthy and this Michigan offense to come out of character. They have to take some hits without folding, slow this down, and let the same kind of game-plan that worked against Alabama to manifest in this spot. Washington wants to hone in on the running game with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, create some negative plays, and force Michigan to throw more. That might seem inconsistent with the state of their pass defense, but they want the Wolverines to come out of their wheelhouse. It just won’t be easy and if we see the same Washington defense we saw in a lot of spots this season, they better get it right on the first try because no one behind can be relied upon to stop a downhill-running team like the Wolverines.

Looking at the Huskies with Rose-Colored Glasses

A lot of things make a Michigan pick less than difficult to make. They are better in the trenches. Their defense has more acclaim. Their run game is better, and in many ways, they are the more complete team, a team that looks more the part of what you’ve come to expect from your typical national champion. But when you take an NFL-caliber quarterback and receiver with Penix, Jr. and Odunze and the work they do on the perimeter, it has a way of making those problems go away, in addition to making the things Michigan does a little less impactful.

Take the Points

I’m not sure that the things Michigan excels at, namely in how they take over games that are fought along the line of scrimmage, will register so well here in this spot against this opponent. And we need to see how Washington RB Dillon Johnson is doing leading up to this game, as he offers variety to a pass-heavy offense while also being a good blocker for Penix, Jr. It’s a close game that could go either way, which makes me inclined to go with the passing-game of Washington and four points. I’ll take the Huskies in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Washington Huskies plus 4 points.