CFB Week 6 Picks: Boston College vs. Virginia Predictions

Boston College Eagles (4-1 SU, ATS 2-2)  vs Virginia Cavaliers (3-1 SU, ATS 1-1-1)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, October 5th

Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

TV: ACCN

Point Spread: BC +2.5/UVA -2.5 (Do yourself a favor and learn about reduced vig!)

Money Line: BC +118/UVA  -142

Over/Under: 50

At 12:00 ET, this week six college football matchup between the Boston College Eagles and Virginia Cavaliers is set to kick off at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. The game will be broadcast on ACCN, with Virginia coming in as the -2.5-point favorite at home. The money line odds are +118 for Boston College and -142 for Virginia. The over/under line is currently at 50 points. Both teams are 3-1 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Boston College Eagles and Virginia Cavaliers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Boston College Eagles have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-1-1 and finished with an over/under mark of 3-0. These games averaged a combined 50 points per contest.

Boston College Eagles Recent Form:

Boston College enters Week 6 against Virginia with a 4-1 record. They are 2-0 at home and 1-1 on the road. Ranked 47th in our power rankings, the Eagles have a 92.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, but only a 1.7% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast.

Their ATS record is 2-2, with a +14 average scoring margin. Boston College is 0-2 against the spread as the favorite and 2-0 as the underdog.

Their over/under record stands at 0-4, with an average total of 45.6 points per game. This week’s line is set at 50 points, slightly above their average over/under line of 49.4 points.

Boston College’s offense is ranked 42nd in our college football offensive power rankings heading into week 6. They are averaging 29.8 points per game, placing them 51st nationally. Their rushing attack is the focal point, with 38.6 attempts per game, ranking 13th, and they are averaging 181.8 rushing yards per game.

Treshaun Ward leads the ground game with 275 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored two touchdowns. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has thrown for 729 yards and ten touchdowns, with two interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 126. Lewis Bond leads the receivers with 279 yards and two touchdowns on 23 catches.

Boston College’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 15.8 points per game. In their recent game, they gave up 20 points but managed to secure two interceptions. The Eagles allowed 355 total yards, including 123 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 232 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 103.4 rushing yards per game against Boston College, ranking 29th in the country. Quarterbacks have a passer rating of 60.8 against the Eagles, completing 55.2% of their throws and averaging 216.8 passing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

Virginia Cavaliers Recent Form:

Virginia enters Week 6 with a 3-1 record, ranked 66th in our power rankings. They have a 39.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Cavaliers are 2-0 on the road but 0-1 at home this season.

Virginia has been favored in three of their four games, going 2-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.8 points, and they are 1-1-1 against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is 50 points. Virginia’s games have averaged 53.8 points, with an average over/under line of 54.3 points.

Virginia’s offense is averaging 30.2 points per game heading into week 6, ranking 49th in the nation. They are 62nd in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 1,032 yards, completing 68.3% of his passes, and Virginia ranks 21st nationally in completion percentage. Colandrea has seven touchdowns and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 99.

Virginia is 53rd in passing attempts, averaging 32 per game, and 39th in completions, with 21.5 per game. They are also averaging 195.5 rushing yards per game. Xavier Brown leads the ground attack with 293 yards, averaging 8 yards per carry. Malachi Fields has 24 receptions for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Virginia has struggled on third downs, converting just 31% of their attempts.

Virginia’s defense has allowed 23.5 points per game this season, ranking them 34th nationally. In their recent game against Coastal Carolina, they gave up 24 points but limited the Chanticleers to 14 first downs and just 82 rushing yards on 24 attempts. However, they allowed 302 passing yards while forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 125.2 rushing yards per game against Virginia, with 34.2 rushing attempts per game. Through the air, Virginia has allowed 269.5 passing yards per game, ranking 147th, with quarterbacks completing 58.9% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 89.7.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Boston College Eagles have a straight-up record of 5-5 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 19 points per game in these contests.
• In their last three home games, Virginia has averaged 32 points per game while allowing 28. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-0-1 vs. the spread.
• As the betting underdog, the Boston College Eagles have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Boston College posted a straight-up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
• The last ten games that Virginia was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-6-1 while going 6-4 straight up.

Free Pick

The way I see it, Boston College is a slightly more well rounded football team heading into this one, but the oddsmakers are putting Virginia at -2.5, given that they are at home. There are two ways you could play this matchup. If you’re feeling aggressive, take BC on the money line. But I’m ok with taking a slightly less favorable payout, and taking the Eagles to cover at +2.5.