CFB Week 5 Picks – This Week’s NP Under Play

Longhorns Stomp on Bulldogs –
This Week’s NP Under Play

This week’s play:
Miss St/Tex Un
The NP Under spot went 2-0 last week, banking two more units.
Here are the previous year’s records and 2024 updated to include last week:

• 2020: 28-4, 87%
• 2021: 34-21, 63%
• 2022: 34-32, 51%
• 2023: 21-17, 55%
• 2024: 15-5, 75% (YTD, Year To Date)

Combined total: 132-79, 62%
That’s a very healthy size data sample of over 200 games.
It’s in its fifth year, without a losing record in any one of them (lost a little juice in 2022.)

And kicking butt again this year.

Four games qualify for an NP Under this week, two just barely by the hook. If the numbers drop, they’ll be eliminated as plays.
I made all four plays available; you just have to know where to look (a bit of a puzzle, but not as intricate as the one in my August 15th article, which resulted in a winner on a WNBA total for those who have slight ciphering skills. So, a search for these might be worth the effort.)

I’ll use one here and the other three as forum picks (unless they no longer qualify.)

This week’s buy: Miss St/Tex Un.

The Bulldogs of Mississippi State qualified as an NP Under back on 9/7 vs Az St.
The total opened at 62 and closed around 58. The two teams combined for 53 points, so Miss St is 1-0 in this spot.
And I’ll stick with what works till it doesn’t.

At first glance, some of the numbers for both teams are not looking great for an Under.
Miss St is 3-1 to the Over.
Texas is 3-1 to the Over.
That’s a combined 6-2, meaning 75% of their games have gone Over the total.

This number opened at 61′ and is slowly rising; 62′ is the common number now. It may hit 63 or higher so let’s use 63 as a base number to match up with totals on games both of these two have already played.

At a total of 63, the Bulldogs would have two Unders, one Over, and one Push.
At 63, the Longhorns would have three Unders and one Push. Suddenly, that combined record of 6-2 to the Over doesn’t look quite so bad anymore.

Texas sits at the top of the AP rankings and is number two in the coaches poll, just behind Georgia.
The main reason for this can be found in their opponent’s scores. From their first game to their last, here they are:
Colorado State 0
Michigan 12
Tex San Ant 7
UL Monroe 3
An average of 5.5 PPG.
That’s just nasty; rattlesnake nasty.

Miss St is averaging 31 PPG, but that number is skewed by the 56 points they scored against FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky.

Facing FBS opponents, they’re averaging just 22 PPG after facing low-ranked defenses such as Florida 51, Arizona State 53, and Toledo 80.
In other words, nothing like Texas.

I like betting Unders on games that have a good chance of seeing a shutout on one side, and the Bulldogs are lucky if they get to double digits in this one.

With #21 Oklahoma on deck, followed by #2 Georgia, I don’t see Texas letting up here.
This will be my first look at Arch Manning.
I hope he has a good game.
But not too good.

When to Buy Recommendation:

The opening number has gone up a point from 61′ to 62′ so no harm in not buying it today. My screen is always up so I can monitor line movements. I’ll keep a close eye on this one and wait to buy it, hoping I can get 63. If I see 62′ start to drop, I’ll grab it.
The forum is undergoing some maintenance; not sure when it’ll be ready to go, but if it’s up by the weekend, I’ll post the final number I get on this game as well as any other plays I make.