CFB Picks: Wyoming at Colorado St. Point Spread Prediction

Wyoming Cowboys (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Colorado State Rams (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 12
Date/Time: Friday, November 15, 2024, at 8 PM EST
Where: Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Wyoming Cowboys come to Fort Collins for a Friday night Mountain West Conference showdown with the Colorado State Rams. Make no mistake—it’s been a long season for the 2-7 Cowboys. After seeing some success under former head coach Craig Bohl and getting to 9 wins last season, it’s been tough for first-year head coach Jay Sawvell. But they showed two Saturdays ago before having last week off that they haven’t given up, beating New Mexico on the road, 49-45, as 9-point underdogs. They look for more of that this week, again on the road as they take on Colorado State. The Rams have won four in a row and currently are the only team other than Boise State who hasn’t lost a game in conference. Like Wyoming, they last played on the 2nd, scoring a nice road win over Nevada, 38-21. Who should we get behind in this conference battle out of Fort Collins?

Issues for Wyoming This Week

Able to finally get some offense going last week, Wyoming might not find the going to be so easy on Friday. Granted, getting Harrison Waylee back in the backfield paid off immediately, with him going for 170 yards in his first appearance of the year, as he is a proven contributor who can have some big games. But more often than not this season, we’ve seen this Wyoming offense labor and fail to really rack up big point-totals, with the New Mexico win being the second time this season the Cowboys exceeded 30 points. Since a week one loss to Texas, the Rams have allowed more than 30 points just once. They enter this contest in good form, with 40 combined points allowed in their last three games. And with Wyoming QBs having been errant this season on occasion, that feeds into an opportunistic Colorado State “D” that can make big plays to chip into the cause.

We see Kaden Anderson in the starting role at QB for the Cowboys, with his high-water mark coming in the last game, a 342-yard/3 TD performance against New Mexico. For really the first time in a spot that mattered, we saw the Wyoming offense humming along nicely and showing good balance in their approach. They really do have a nice variety of backs, and with Waylee showing his fangs in the last game, along with the potential for Anderson to be the answer at quarterback, can we maybe see a strong finish to the season for a Wyoming team that might be a team worth watching next season? Or is this all just a byproduct of playing a New Mexico defense that can really sink to low depths on a given week?

Colorado State: A Lot to Play For

Things looked shaky after a 2-3 start to the season, and people maybe took their eyes off the Rams a little bit. And to be fair, it’s not like wins over teams like Air Force, New Mexico, and Nevada command a lot of respect, but the Rams are unbeaten in conference and on a nice little roll, and it won’t be easy to separate them from the positive momentum they worked so hard to create after an uneven first half of the season. It’s a very competent group, benefitting from the leadership at QB from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Running backs Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall add a lot on the ground, while Fowler-Nicolosi has continued finding answers aerially, even after the loss of top receiver Tory Horton.

But alas, the Colorado State offense is more capable and competent than they are high-flying or electric. They’re not built to blow teams out of the water. Granted, the Rams have covered the spread in each of the last six games, but the double-digit spread we see as of press time presents different challenges for a Rams’ team where the opponent hasn’t been given that much slack this season. So, you take a team that isn’t known for much offense, give them their biggest spread to cover as of late, and pit them against a team coming off their high-water mark of the season—it makes things a little sticky.

But we again fall back on Colorado State’s headspace. One, like Wyoming, they are coming off a break, as well. After becoming bowl-eligible following their last win, they now look to position themselves for a conference championship spot against Boise, where they’d have a chance to post a transcendent win against a powerful ranked team. All that coming to fruition may seem unlikely, but in the meantime, I’d expect that possible eventuality to keep Colorado State pointed in the right direction with high urgency in spots like this. Sometimes, a team like Wyoming coming into town with a two-win record would result in some complacency, but a potential Cowboys backer this week might not be able to count on that at all.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Again, Colorado State isn’t going to make anyone’s short-list of teams where you feel good laying a double-digit spread. Their point-totals aren’t usually swelled, and we see Wyoming getting Waylee back and coming off a 49-point game. I just sense it will be the Colorado State defense that has the major say on this game, as the more one-dimensional Wyoming offense struggles to latch onto whatever they had going well against New Mexico in what’s a much tougher place to play against an exponentially better defense. I see Colorado winning and getting the cover at home on Friday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado State Rams minus 10 points.

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