CFB Picks Week 9: Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

College Football Week 9

Date and Time: Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 3:30 PM EDT

Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah

TV: Fox

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ORE -7 / UTAH +7 (Bovada)

Money Line: ORE -275, UTAH +225

Over/Under Total: 49

The Oregon Ducks come to Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday for a big-time Pac-12 showdown with the Utah Utes. This game features a pair of 6-1 conference contenders who have already scored some nice wins this season. Oregon was able to rebound from their 3-point loss to unbeaten Washington last week, beating Washington State 38-24. They now face a difficult road task against a Utah team that went into the LA Coliseum last week and beat USC, 34-32, in a great game. Who has the edge in this pivotal conference showdown?

Can the Utes Keep it Going?

Even as the weeks sailed by and the red flags came up as we didn’t see starting QB Cameron Rising getting into action, perhaps head coach Kyle Whittingham having just ruled him out for the remainder of the season will allow their offense to crystalize. They are not infallible. That offense can stall out some, as we saw in their only loss of the year, a 21-7 loss to a Cougars team the Ducks just beat last week. It spawned a QB change, with Whittingham going with Bryson Barnes over freshman Nate Johnson at quarterback. And it has paid off, as the Utes’ offense has looked better the last two weeks.

While Oregon seems to command more national attention overall, recent results show Utah has been competitive in this matchup for quite some time. Whittingham has seen his team perform well at the highest levels, providing stiff competition for Oregon, USC, and whatever team is towards the top of this conference. While not eye-popping on offense and without the star-power that other teams can boast, Utah’s defense, team mentality, overall competence and solid coaching seem to always have them in good stead in these matchups.

What the Utes Need to Do

Oregon’s defense might provide an “in” for the Utes. Whether it was against Texas Tech, the big spurt by Colorado late in their win over the Buffaloes, or other spots where so-so conference offenses are putting up points against this Oregon defense, they are exploitable to a certain degree. Two consecutive 34-point outputs for the Utes are promising, and with Barnes starting to cook a little bit, a home Utah offense can thrive on Saturday. They can run the heck out of the ball while having a large cabaret of different pass-catchers who contribute a lot.

Still, the most compelling aspect of this game may very well be the Oregon offense. With this Bo Nix-led unit, they’re a threat to take over the game. Even when playing better defenses, we see this offense is one of the more foolproof units in the country. Nix has 21 TDs and one pick. Last week, they took it to Washington State both through the air and the ground, with Bucky Irving and Jordan James each rushing for over 100 yards, with receivers Tez Johnson and dangerous Troy Franklin doing their thing through the air. Irving ran in two scores and caught another one. The Ducks’ defense might betray them from time to time, but this side of the ball is seldom their issue.

Possible X-Factors

This analysis is filled with a lot of give-and-take points that force you to almost look off the grid a bit. Oregon has struggled mightily on this field, a two-point win in 2016, their last triumph in Salt Lake. We’ve seen results come from this field that make little sense, with Utah’s 38-7 stomping of a 4th-ranked Oregon in ’21 coming to mind. It’s just that when things unfold that run totally contrary to reason, it’s usually going to be in Utah’s favor, or at least so it seems lately.

Or are we putting too much stock in Utah after that big win last week? Not that their rep is built on that alone, but it’s really a large part of what we’re using to substantiate Utah belonging at this heightened conference level in ‘23. Maybe we just had USC pegged wrong the whole time and they’re not that good. Is this where we start to see certain things register negatively for the Utes? Holding it together pretty well up until now without Rising is promising, but that doesn’t mean the wheels won’t come off a bit when it comes to crunch time in these elevated conference games.

Take the Road Favorite

Utah is no easy mark at home, having already shown their merit this season while overcoming different obstacles. They have different wrinkles they can unfurl on an opponent, as shown last week by springing forth safety Sione Vaki for 144 passing yards and 3 TDs in the big win against USC. I just sense this turning into a footrace at some point, and I’m going to opt for the more reliable weaponry on the Oregon offense, namely a run game that should register well this week. I’m taking the Ducks.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Oregon Ducks minus 7 points.