CFB Picks: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

TCU Horned Frogs (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

College Football Week 10

Date and Time: Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 7PM EDT

Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas

TV: Fox Sports One

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TCU +3/TT -3 (Bovada – Offers a massive 75% cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin! They also have the best live betting platform on the planet! So user friendly!)

Money Line: Texas Christian +130, Texas Tech -150

Over/Under Total: 59

The TCU Horned Frogs come to Lubbock for a Big 12 showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Thursday. Both teams enter this game with a break of over one week, but neither team comes in with much momentum. Texas Christian was smoked 41-3 by Kansas State on October 21 in their last game, suffering their third loss in four games and falling to 4-4. Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost to BYU, 27-14, losing their second in a row to fall to 3-5. Can the Horned Frogs get back on the right track, or will Texas Tech score their first win over TCU since 2018?

Who Can Right the Ship?

It’s a critical game for two teams who each look to come off the break in action with a spurt to give this season an air of quality. A strong regular-season ending surge from either team would be a welcome addition for what has really been a pair of ho-hum seasons from each squad. TCU rebounded from a week one loss to Colorado to get to 3-1 but has really fallen flat in conference play, dropping three of their last four in the conference. Texas Tech, after a rough 0-2 start, won three of four, but two straight losses in the Big 12 have cooled their jets.

Clues Within the Results

In conferences like the Big 12 and Pac-12, the common-opponent arithmetic that holds water in other contexts can be an iffy tool to use. But when so many opponents are played in the same time period, it bears a second look. For example, Texas Tech just lost to BYU, 27-14, while TCU smoked BYU the week prior, 44-11. That’s pretty damning for the Red Raiders, but then they lost to Kansas State halfway, respectably, 38-21, while TCU, in their last game, was creamed by the Jayhawks, 41-3. With each team scoring comparable results against West Virginia and Houston, maybe it’s a wash between these two middling Big-12 teams.

When looking at this spot, it’s interesting to gauge how each team landed. You have a TCU team that got into the College Football Playoff under Sonny Dykes last season to conclude a highly-successful season. And we now see them struggling to keep their noses above .500, coming off getting absolutely roasted by the Jayhawks. You wonder if the enormity of their deterioration starts to register in a bad way as we move into the final chapters of the season. While you see two teams more or less occupying similar stations in life, it is TCU that lands here with a thud, as opposed to a Texas Tech squad that is more acclimated to occupying this standing in the Big 12. Maybe it’s enough to give Texas Tech a slight morale edge heading into this point of the season, with them getting this at home not hurting, either.

Silver Lining for Texas Christian?

It didn’t manifest in their last appearance with a 3-point output against Kansas State, but leading up to that, TCU was showing they could still flex a potent offense. Averaging almost 500 yards of offense heading into that game, I’d look for the time off to be used to get this offense back on point. They will still be waiting for starting QB Chandler Morris to return in a few weeks, meanwhile going with backup Josh Hoover, whose play has caused this offense to take a small step back, relying on workhorse back Emani Bailey in those games where the defense doesn’t completely overturn the whole operation.

Nice Spot for Texas Tech?

Looking for their first win over TCU since ’18, the Red Raiders get some positive elements to this game they hope leads to something good. They’re at home, which helps, though it’s not a long trip for the Horned Frogs. They’ve been in at least slightly better overall form lately, with less-damning results having come down in recent weeks. And the prospects of being swallowed up by the TCU offense appear to be at least slightly diminished given the state of their offense.

The real hope for the Red Raiders might lie in the state of the TCU defense. They’re not a very impactful group, either with rushing the passer or in making big splash plays on that side of the ball. The Texas Tech offense faces similar issues to TCU, with their starting QB shelved until later in November. The difference is Behren Morton has been good as a replacement, using this extra time to get ready for this spot, as he is supposedly a go after missing some time. With weaponry in the form of top RB Tajh Brooks, along with a cast of capable ball-catchers, This Red Raiders offense might have one of their better home spots to do some damage in a conference game.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Neither team has been a very bankable force through eight games, making either side of this equation a bit dicey. I think some edges in recent form and better QB play could resonate in this home spot for the Red Raiders. Getting Morton back gives them a real X-factor they can apply against a TCU defense that may have found some answers with the time off but isn’t really getting better as we get deep into the season, along with an offense not able to keep up against anyone but the bottom-feeders of this conference. I’ll take the Red Raiders in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus 3 points.