CFB Picks: Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines 10/26/24

Michigan State Spartans (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Michigan Wolverines (4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS)

When: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Oct. 26

Where: Michigan Stadium

TV: BTN

Betting Odds

• Point Spread: MSU +4 / Michigan -4
• Money Line: MSU +155 / Michigan -175
• Over/Under: 40

Michigan and Michigan State are both 4-3 heading into the 117th meeting between the programs, the annual battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy Saturday night at the Big House.

One season after winning the national championship, the Wolverines are finding the going a little tougher, although that wasn’t unexpected, considering the personnel losses they suffered over the off-season.

Meanwhile, one season after winning just four games, the Spartans, under new HC Jonathan Smith, already own four victories.

Last season, this match-up resulted in a blowout. Saturday’s game should play much closer.

Line Movement and Analysis

The CFB Week 9 betting market opened Michigan at -5.5 for Saturday night, with an O/U of right around 41. Early betting action dropped that spread to -4.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the line on this game should be Michigan -7.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Preview

Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 32-20 win over Iowa last Saturday. MSU, catching 6.5 points as a home dog, led 12-0 at the half, then later allowed the Hawkeyes to get within 25-20 midway through the fourth quarter. But Sparty immediately drove 75 yards to a game-clinching score.

Michigan State also cashed in, catching +225 on the college football money line.

The Spartans out-gained Iowa 468-283, ran the ball for 212 yards, and dominated time of possession 40:20.

MSU opened this season 3-0, with a conference win over Maryland. The Spartans then lost a tough game at Boston College, then fell to Ohio State and Oregon by a combined score of 69-17. But that’s no crime; those are two pretty good teams.

At 4-3 overall, Michigan State already owns as many wins as it did all of last season. The Spartans are also one win away from playing over their season O/U, which was 4.5. And they need two more Ws to become bowl-eligible after missing out on the last two seasons.

Michigan Wolverines

Meanwhile, the Wolverines are also 4-3 after losing at Illinois last Saturday 21-7. Michigan, favored at -5, gave up the first 13 points of the game, trailed 13-7 at the half, and could get no closer.

The Wolverines actually out-gained the Illini 322-267 but lost the turnover battle 3-0, which cost them at least 10 points.

Two games ago, Michigan committed two late, crucial turnovers and lost to Washington 27-17.

The Wolverines started 4-1 this season but used three different starting quarterbacks. And as of this writing, HC Sherrone Moore still hadn’t named a starting QB for Saturday.

Michigan is playing against a wins O/U this season of 8.5, but with games to go against Oregon, at Indiana, and at Ohio State, the under bet is looking good.

Recent History: Michigan State vs. Michigan

The Wolverines are 4-2 SU and ATS over the last six meetings in this rivalry. Last year, in a clear mismatch, Michigan won at East Lansing 49-0 and covered easily at -25.

Our guess is Saturday night’s game will play out a little closer.

By the Numbers

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State is averaging 367 YPG on offense this season, 133 of those on the ground. Defensively, the Spartans are holding opponents to 323 YPG, with 131 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin ranks as the 25th-toughest schedule in the country.

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is averaging just 309 YPG on offense, 180 on the ground but just 129 through the air. On defense, the Wolverines are holding foes to 326 YPG, just 92 on the ground. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 20 schedule.

Totals Report

Unders are 5-2 in Spartans games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.

Overs are 4-3 in Wolverines games, which are averaging 43 points.

Free College Football Pick

Coach Smith, as he did at Oregon State, is doing a nice job of rejuvenating Michigan State, following the mess that was the previous two seasons. Meanwhile, Coach Moore is trying to nurse Michigan through the inevitable national championship hangover. As for the match-up on the field, we give the Spartans our handicapping checkmark in the QB comparison, but the Wolverines own the better running game and the slightly better defense.

Also, Michigan State might be ripe for a letdown following a big win over Iowa, while Michigan should put on a better performance than it did at Illinois. Also, Sagarin’s ratings suggest Michigan’s a good deal at anything less than seven points. They haven’t been pretty this season and Saturday night’s game might play a bit ugly, too, but we like the Wolverines minus the points.

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