CFB Picks and Predictions: Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan

Toledo Rockets (5-3 SU, ATS 3-4)  vs Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-3 SU, ATS 4-2)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, November 2nd

Location: Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, MI

TV: ESNU

Point Spread: Tol -8.5/EMU +8.5

Money Line: U of T -322/Eastern Mich. +254

Over/Under: 53.5

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Coming into this week 10 matchup, the Toledo Rockets are favored at -8.5 as they face the Eastern Michigan Eagles. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET at Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti. Both teams are 5-3 on the season, and you can catch the game on ESNU. The money line odds have Toledo at -322 and Eastern Michigan at +254, with the over/under line currently at 53.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Toledo Rockets and Eastern Michigan Eagles did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-2. Against the spread, each team also went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 42 points per contest.

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Toledo enters Week 10 with a 5-3 record, ranked 87th in our power rankings. They have a 99.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, the third-highest in the nation. However, their odds of winning the Mid-American Conference stand at 11.8%.

The Rockets have been favored in five of their eight games this season, going 2-3 as the favorite. On the road, they are 2-2, with a +7.5 average scoring margin. Against the spread, Toledo is 3-4 overall, with a 1-4 record as the favorite.

Toledo’s over/under record is 5-2, with their games averaging 50.8 points. This week’s line is set at 53.5 points, compared to their average line of 49.8 points.

Toledo’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 27th nationally with 262.6 yards per game. They are 30th in passing attempts, averaging 34.2 per game, and 21st in completions, with 21.6 per game. Overall, they are 46th in scoring, with 29.1 points per game, and 88th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10.

Quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 1,645 yards, completing 62.7% of his passes, and has 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 97. Jerjuan Newton leads the receiving corps with 745 yards and ten touchdowns on 43 catches. Toledo’s run game has struggled, averaging just 114.4 yards per game.

Toledo’s defense will look to bounce back after giving up 41 points in their recent loss to Bowling Green. They allowed 402 total yards, including 215 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, while the secondary gave up 187 yards and two passing scores.

On the season, Toledo’s defense ranks 41st nationally, allowing 21.6 points per game. Opponents are averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game and 225.1 passing yards against the Rockets.

Away Injury Report

Eastern Michigan Eagles Recent Form:

Eastern Michigan enters Week 10 against Toledo with a 5-3 record, ranked 115th in our power rankings. Despite the low ranking, they have an 88% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-1, and their average scoring margin this season is +3.4 points per game.

The Eagles have been favored in three games, going 2-1 as the favorite. Against the spread, they are 4-2 overall, with a 3-1 record on the road and 1-1 at home.

The over/under line for this week is 53.5 points. Eastern Michigan’s games have averaged 55.4 points, and their over/under record is 3-3, with an average line of 49.6 points.

Eastern Michigan’s offense averages 29.4 points per game, placing them 45th in the nation. They rank 25th in passing attempts, with 35 per game, and 21st in completions, averaging 21.6. Their passing game produces 244.9 yards per game, ranking 46th. Overall, they are 106th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10.

Cole Snyder leads the passing attack with 1,835 yards and a 61.2% completion rate. He has thrown nine touchdowns and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 89. Delbert Mimms III leads the rushing game with 534 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Eastern Michigan is 9th in rushing attempts, with 41.1 per game. Terry Lockett Jr. has 471 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan’s defense has allowed 26 points per game this season, including 25 points in their recent 25-21 loss to Akron. They gave up 378 total yards, with 220 rushing yards on 31 attempts and 158 yards through the air, while also forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 168.1 rushing yards per game against Eastern Michigan, and quarterbacks have posted a 105.9 passer rating, averaging 217.2 passing yards per game. Eastern Michigan’s defense has faced the 19th fewest pass attempts in the nation this season.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Toledo has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 16 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Across their ten previous home games, Eastern Michigan has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 19 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Eastern Michigan Eagles have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Toledo Rockets have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Toledo posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Free Pick

Even though both Toledo and Eastern Michigan are sitting at 5-3 heading into this week 10 matchup, I see Toledo as the more well-rounded team. The oddsmakers also see it that way and have the Rockets at -8.5 heading into Saturday’s matchup. Although it seems like a big number at -8.5, I’m not backing off on my pick of taking Toledo to cover the spread as the heavy road favorites.

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