CFB Picks and Predictions: San Diego State vs. Boise State

San Diego State Aztecs (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 10

Date/Time: Friday, November 1, 2024 at 8PM EDT

Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

TV: Fox Sports One

The San Diego State Aztecs make the trip to Albertsons Stadium for a Mountain West Conference matchup with the Boise State Broncos. Boise State is in a nice position coming home this week following a big 29-24 win over one of their main conference threats in, the UNLV Rebels. With five straight wins since their only loss of the season by a FG to Oregon, they’re looking good and are ready to start stockpiling wins. Next on the list are the Aztecs, who really gave it a good go on Saturday as big underdogs to Washington State, losing 29-26 to snap a two-game win streak. They look for the big win this week.

Hazards on Friday for the Broncos

Granted, facing Boise on the road is a tough task, though we’ve seen San Diego State keeping things close. Their last four games, a one-point loss to Central Michigan, a three-point win over Hawaii and Wyoming, and last week’s narrow loss to the Cougars, show the Aztecs in big struggles. They have a knack for keeping things tight and have a certain understated resourcefulness that can go a long way as big road-dogs.

While aerially not very strong, QB Danny O’Neil leads a decently diverse offense that has a lot of variety with their pass-catchers, led by Louis Brown, IV. They have a real workhorse back in Marquez Cooper. However, the best player on their team might be on the other side of the ball, where Trey White is coming off the edge with his 11.5 sacks. There are other threats on that line who can get to the quarterback, and Boise QB Maddux Madsen will at least be tested in that regard.

Being Realistic About the Aztecs

They’ve been competent without shining on defense, and in regards to run defense, the Aztecs have maybe been made to look a little better than they really are this season. Earlier in the season, we saw enough instances where the matchup of this run-defense going against Ashton Jeanty is a sticking-point for those fancying SDSU this week. While the Aztecs did very well to come within three of beating the Broncos last season, Jeanty was still able to shine with over 200 yards on the ground, along with some good receiving work. And a lot of those Aztecs pieces that helped keep this close last season are gone.

There’s just this sense that these Aztecs are handcuffed with a level of crippling mediocrity that might be hard to shake off. Against the better teams they’ve played, they come up with very little. Then, against these lower-end Mountain West teams like Wyoming and Hawaii, they’re barely scraping by, putting up 21-27 points. Then there was last week when, as 17-point dogs, they took a 26-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Sure, it all fell apart, but it goes to show they at least have it in them to be dangerous. It’s worth noting Boise beat that same Washington State team, 45-24, in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests.

The Value of Boise State

The spread is robust. San Diego State’s offense is underpowered for this matchup and other than wielding a strong pass-rush, have few other qualities that could resonate in a meaningful way in this game. We saw the Aztecs get blanked by the Beavers in a 21-0 loss, also losing by 21 the next week to Cal in another game where they couldn’t stop the run. So, losing by 20+ to a good team wouldn’t be anything new for the Aztecs. Then again, they were within three last season and this isn’t a Boise State defense that is impenetrable. They’ve been a little better recently and performed well enough to help in the big win last week against the Rebels. But when you see teams like Georgia Southern put up 45 and Utah State put up 30, you start to think twice about laying 23 points.

At the very least, it’s no picnic. Not that Boise State will necessarily let up, but it is a potential letdown spot, coming off the big road win against a good team and now hosting the sub-.500 Aztecs. Jeanty was used an awful lot last week. Who’s to say the Broncos don’t get off to a lead and ease off the gas a bit? This looks like a spot rife with backdoor potential. The Aztecs aren’t very good, but do the Broncos really have the defense and urgency to make this an appealing betting spot?

Take the Points on the Road Dog

If the number were less than 20, this could be a different conversation. And even with what looks to be an abundant point allowance on the surface, there are any number of scenarios where the Aztecs could just be run off this field on Friday. Something still tells me that the spread is seeping into an area where a good-value spot can be justified on the Aztecs, who I feel will stop the Broncos just short of a complete annihilation in this spot. I’m going with the Aztecs in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the San Diego Aztecs plus 23 points.

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