Central Michigan vs. Michigan State Point Spread Pick 9/1/23

Central Michigan Chippewas (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Friday, September 1, 2023 at 7PM EDT

Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan

TV: Fox Sports One

Point Spread: CMU +14/MSU -14 (Bet like a sharp! Lay -105 instead of -110 at BAS!)

Over/Under Total: 50

The Central Michigan Chippewas come into East Lansing to take on the Michigan State Spartans in a week one non-conference matchup, as both teams kick off their seasons at Spartan Stadium on September 1. Some might look at it as a week one layup for the Spartans and you might not be that far off. In the last handful of seasons, we’ve seen the Spartans spank some in-state schools like this from the MAC. But after an 11-win season in 2022, the Spartans sunk to 5-7 in 2022. This is a big year for them and head coach Mel Tucker and I’d anticipate them looking to get off to a fast start in what seems like a doable task in week one.

The State of the Chippewas

Although at a much-reduced context, we see a similar team-trajectory for the Chippewas, coming off a very successful 2021 season and landing in 2022 with a thud at 4-8. Jim McElwain is facing his first real trial at head coach following three fairly-successful seasons leading up to last year’s flop. And while they don’t customarily go against teams like this from the power-five conferences, McElwain’s squads have usually fared OK in these lopsided matchups, losing, but not really coming all that close to being embarrassed. Against a Michigan State team coming off a rough season, maybe they continue holding it together. Trends can lead one astray and coming off a 4-8 year, optimism is hard to come by, but those who have been expecting the Chippewas to get run over the last several years when they leave the cozy confines of the MAC haven’t really been cashing tickets, either. And not that it matters much now, but in 2009, CMU actually came into East Lansing and won. Four years ago, they got off to a lead in this building, before losing 31-20. So history shows us they’re not necessarily sacrificial lambs in this spot.

What Version of the Spartans Will We See?

There are some differing opinions on what to expect. While they obviously want to turn things around after going 5-7, I’d say anything over 7 wins might fall into the category of being overly-optimistic. It looks like it will be Noah Kim at quarterback, but it’s a bit of a blind spot with the junior having taken only 19 spots in his college career. It can’t be much worse than it was last season and if he falters, Tucker might start flexing one of his best recruits since joining the Spartans in Katin Houser. They have a talented backfield with Jalen Berger, Nathan Carter, and others. That offensive line might be better than we’ve seen in recent seasons, as well. And that’s a nice pair of features for an inexperienced incoming quarterback.

Last season, we saw a lot of dysfunction with the Chippewas offense. There were times where week after week, point totals would barely crack double-digits or maybe get into the teens against unspectacular MAC defenses. And sure, it seems they typically get up for games like this out of conference, but to cover the spread even against a Spartans team coming off a rough patch that figures to run the ball a lot, they’re going to need to put something up there offensively. Michigan State has some juice on “D” with LB Cal Haladay, along with Angelo Grose, Jacoby Windmon, and a returning-from-injury Darius Snow.

Can Chippewas Keep Pace?

Since they’re not being afforded the large-sized spread some may have expected, Central Michigan faces some serious questions about their offensive viability for this matchup. Efficient but unspectacular QB Daniel Richardson has transferred and while Bert Emanuel, Jr. showed some nice legs in relief of Richardson last season, he didn’t flash much of an arm. Having a healthy Lew Nichols at running back will certainly help out. But against a defense that is better than what they’re used to facing, you have to wonder about a Chippewas offensive line that really bit the dust last season after losing some key guys. They don’t return a lot of production and after Emanuel, Jr. threw just 8 times in three games, they could be a bit one-dimensional.

Saving Grace for Central Michigan?

Last season, we saw some early bumps for the Central Michigan defense, before they started steadying the ship and becoming much less of a liability. By season’s end, it was likely the bright spot of the team. The bad part is they lose the bulk of a D-line that was pretty good in stopping the run last season and now expecting inexperienced D-linemen from CMU to hit the ground running in game one against this Spartans’ rushing attack could be wishful thinking. They’d also like to see an overall boost in playmaking across the board. But almost everyone else is coming back and with another year of experience and some projected growth, this is a part of the Central Michigan recipe that could come together a bit in this game.

Lay the Number on the Home Team

There wasn’t much about the Spartans last season that would make you want to open the season by laying two TDs on them. They have some moving pieces on both sides of the ball and for all we know, they might not turn out to be very good this season. It’s just that the spread doesn’t seem too accommodating to the Chippewas, especially with the issues they have. With a QB that either couldn’t or didn’t throw the ball last season working with a young receiver crew, trying to run the ball behind this offensive line just doesn’t provide a pretty picture. And with their now depreciated defensive front, I don’t see how they curtail what could be an improved Michigan State run-game. I’ll take the Spartans in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Michigan State Spartans minus 14 points.