Cardinals vs. Irish: Expert Predictions, Odds, and Betting Analysis

 Louisville Cardinals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28th, 3:30 PM

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV: NBC

Point Spread: LOU +6.5/ND -6.5 (Find 20 point CFB teasers at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Over/Under Total: 48

Four games between ranked teams await college football fans on Saturday, and in the middle matchup to keep your interest until the epic Georgia vs Alabama showdown, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Louisville Cardinals in South Bend.  All four of the previous meetings between the teams have taken place in the last ten years with an even split amongst them but Louisville having won the most recent a season ago and also having covered in every one of the games.

FLYING HIGH

The Cardinals enter the week with plenty of momentum, having started their season with a 3-0 record for the first time since 2016.  Head coach Jeff Brohm is now in his second year as the sideline leader in Louisville, and after leading his team to a double-digit win and a trip to the ACC Championship game in 2023, things are set up well for further success if they can get by the Irish this week with games against Miami the Clemson the only remaining that they won’t be favored to win. 

FOR SHOUGH

Notre Dame finds themselves going against a sixth-year quarterback for the second straight week in facing Louisville’s Tyler Shough.  The Cardinal passer has had an efficient start to the year, completing nearly 70% of his passes while throwing for eight touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.  The lack of turnovers has been a key to the success of late for whatever team Shough has played for, as he is 9-1 since 2020 in games in which he doesn’t throw an interception but 1-5 in his last six when turning it over through the air.  

BROOKS WAS HERE

 
Both Louisville and Notre Dame have had one person take the lion’s share of statistical responsibility in the receiving game to start the season, and for the Cardinals, that is wideout portal transfer from Alabama Ja’Corey Brooks.  Seventeen different players have caught a pass for Louisville this season but Ja’Corey is the only one that has been consistent enough to have more than six receptions on the season having put up 17 for 297 yards so far.  Four players on the team have caught two touchdowns apiece this season (receivers Brooks, Chris Bell and Jadon Thompson along with tight end Mark Redman), but as a whole they have undoubtedly missed Caullin Lacy who was expected to start but was lost for the season due to a collar bone injury.  The four scorers figure to continue as the most targeted on the team, with Brooks expected to get a heavy spotlight of attention from Notre Dame’s 18th-rated pass defense, highlighted by cornerback Benjamin Morrison and safety Xavier Watts. 
 

CARDINAL COMMITTEE

 
The Louisville offense ranks 37th in rushing yards per game though how effective they really are remains to be seen.  A majority of their stats were built up in cupcake wins against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to begin the year, but the team struggled mightily as a whole last week against Georgia Tech, posting just 62 yards total on the ground.  They have seemingly gone with the committee approach thus far with five players all having double digit carries and scored a touchdown (Isaac Brown, Maurice Turner, Duke Watson and, Keyjuan Brown and Donald Chaney), though none of the group has necessarily done enough to distinguish themselves.  The door may be opening for at least four of them with the starter at the position Turner questionable to play this weekend after missing the Yellow Jackets matchup last Saturday, but the challenge on all is certainly a tough one against an Irish defense that has only allowed one touchdown in the last eleven quarters.
 

SLUGGISH, LIKE A WET SPONGE

 
Notre Dame’s offense was lucky to be playing against inferior competition a week ago as quarterback Riley Leonard struggled early to find the mark and it wasn’t until later in the second quarter that the team started to move the ball consistently.  The unheralded Irish defense has kept the team in games this year, as the offense has had repeated issues putting together solid and consistent drives.  Now that Notre Dame is starting to see an increase in talent as the schedule progresses, they won’t be able to keep relying on the defense to bail them out and may not be equip to mount a comeback with Leonard as quarterback if they were ever able to fall behind by multiple scores early.
 

PASSING PROBLEMS

 
Leonard was finally able to get the monkey off his back and throw for his first passing touchdown of the season against Miami Ohio but his early struggles were enough to get some of the hometown Notre Dame fans booing in the first half.  The current Irish starter ranks just 118th in yards per pass with a measly 5.7 average while also coming in at 107th nationally in quarterback rating, and with his team facing a non-existent margin of error thanks to the embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, he may be facing a shorter leash as the season progresses if he isn’t able to use his rushing ability to distract from a lack of passing one.

LACK OF LOVE

 
Jerimayah Love is the best player on the Notre Dame offense, and the hope for Irish fans at some point is for the coaching staff to finally start realizing that when it comes to play calling.  He has over eleven carries just once in a game this season, and against better teams, the Irish will not have extra plays at their disposal to try and get their struggling quarterback more comfortable in the pocket.  Both Love and backup Jadarian Price are averaging over seven yards per carry, and with their rushing offense ranking 18th and passing 109th, it’s become abundantly clear what the strength and clear focal point of the offense should be.
 

BEAUX BALL

 
Similar to Ja’Corey Brooks at Louisville, Beaux Collins is the shining star of the Irish passing game.  Having nearly double the number of yards and receptions of anyone else on the team, Collins is also the only Notre Dame player to have more than three receptions in a game this season.  Jaden Greathouse was poised for a strong year but has just one catch in the games since suffering a disastrous drop against Northern Illinois and will need to snap out of his funk quickly unless risking falling further down the depth chart with Jordan Faison back from injury and Jayden Harrison, Kris Mitchell and Jayden Thomas all having shown their ample ability.
 

TRENDS AND FINAL SELECTION

 
Anyone who is heavily influenced by trends will be backing Notre Dame this weekend, as nearly all point in their favor.  The Irish are 16-1 straight up in their last 17 games against teams ranked 10-25, and an expected higher-scoring matchup this weekend seems to benefit them as well.  The ability to put points on the board has been a direct indication of Notre Dame’s success of late, having lost their last eight games in a row when putting up less than 21 points but going 67-3 in their last 70 when scoring over 20.
 
The Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled of late when leaving the friendly confines of their terribly named home ball field of L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, having 8-19 straight on the road since 2018 and a 7-17-1 mark against the spread in their last 25 away games including a 1-6 record over the last three years.  Getting points has been even worse for Louisville versus the number, having gone 4-12-1 in their last 17 as a road dog and an overall record of 10-20 in their last 30 as any sort of an underdog.  They have also only covered once in their last six road openers.
 
Trends don’t worry me as much as Riley Leonard does passing the ball against a quality opponent.  I don’t trust in his ability to play consistent, mistake-free football for 60 minutes, and versus a talented team like Louisville, he is going to miss the cushiony margin of error he has had against lesser competition since the A&M opener.  In what I expect to be a close game throughout, I will be taking the touchdown head start and backing the Cardinals financially on Saturday against the Irish at Notre Dame Stadium.
 
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Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Louisville +6.5