Can Kentucky Cover Against Texas? Betting Pick and Analysis

Texas Longhorns (-20.5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats

When: Saturday, November 23rd, 3:30 PM ET

Where: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Spread: Texas -20.5

Moneyline: Tex-1200, Ken +700

Total: 57.5

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Preview: Battle of SEC Foes With Playoff Implications

A battle of two SEC teams with very different levels of success in 2024 is poised to take place in Austin, Texas as the Kentucky Wildcats will hit the road to face the powerhouse Texas Longhorns. As is always the case with SEC football matchups, anything can happen. There are no guaranteed victories within the conference and these games always seem to mean more than any others on the schedule. There are plenty of implications in this contest, as Texas has all eyes set on the College Football Playoff, while Kentucky is hoping to build momentum on a recent victory and win out to gain a morale boost and bowl eligibility. It will be an uphill battle for the Wildcats to claim victory on the Longhorns’ home field, but what I am looking to assess is if they can cover a nearly three touchdown spread. These two teams may not be close to the same caliber through 10 games, but I still believe this one will be an exciting watch. Let’s see how these squads stack up and how the game may unfold this Saturday.

Kentucky Wildcats: Struggles on Offense, Strength on Defense

The Kentucky Wildcats enter their penultimate game with a dismal 4-6 record on the year and find themselves 15th in the SEC standings. This team had loftier expectations coming into 2024, but things have not played out in their favor. The offense has been one-dimensional, but even that one dimension has not been great. Behind quarterback Brock Vandagriff, the Wildcats have struggled to move the ball through the air. Vandagriff’s 57.8 completion percentage is weak, and he has only thrown nine touchdowns against nine interceptions this year.

To make matters worse, the offensive line has allowed their QB to be sacked 23 times through 10 games. Dane Key has been the leading receiver for Kentucky but only averages 4.4 catches per game and under 70 yards. He does possess a healthy 15.6 yards per catch, which only shows that Kentucky either hits a long completion or fails to record one altogether. The Wildcats are hoping that their second-leading receiver, Barion Brown, can return for this matchup after missing the last game with an injury to his ribs. If there is a positive for this offensive unit, it comes via the run game, yet the Wildcats only rank 124th in the country with 157.1 rushing yards per game. Led by Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, Kentucky has found the endzone on the ground 10 times this season. Sumo-Karngbaye leads the team with 5 of those scores and has compiled 505 rushing yards so far this year. As a whole, the offense averages 21.9 points per game. The defensive unit is the strength of this team and has had success defending both the pass and run. Kentucky ranks 65th in total yardage allowed and 63rd and 92nd against the pass and rush, respectively. They have been able to keep opponents below an average of 20 points per game and will need this unit to show dominance against their toughest test yet.

Texas Longhorns: Balanced Offense and Stifling Defense

The Texas Longhorns are exactly who we thought they would be coming into the 2024 season. At 9-1, they are firmly in the driver’s seat in the SEC and have their eyes on a conference championship and then a national championship. They will look to take care of a meddling Kentucky team before they finish their regular season against in-state rivals Texas A&M. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has helped this program rank 20th in total offensive yards per game as well as passing yards per game. Texas is averaging 288.6 yards through the air, and Ewers has connected with his receivers 21 times, resulting in scores. Ewers is also completing nearly 70% of his pass attempts and has shown proficiency in distributing the ball across a multitude of targets. Tight end Gunnar Helm leads the Longhorns with 37 catches for 493 yards, but there are seven pass-catchers in total with 20 or more receptions on the year. It doesn’t matter if you are a running back, a tight end or a wide receiver, Ewers will find a way to get you involved.

The running game features three backs in Quintrevion Wisner, Jaydon Blue, and Jerrick Gibson, who have combined for over 1200 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns this year. They offer a mix of power and speed and are all averaging nearly 5 yards per touch. With this versatility, Texas can control the game and run up the score, which is demonstrated by their 37.0 points per game average. The Texas defense is just as strong as their offensive counterparts. They rank in the top 5 in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed and are 39th against the run. They have held opponents to a measly 11.9 points per game and only allow third down conversions 31% of the time. This team is built to beat any opponent they face and will cause problems for Kentucky on both sides of the ball.

Betting Pick: Texas Longhorns -20.5 (-110)

Kentucky does not have the tools to keep this game close if Texas is able to score at will like they’ve been doing all season. Through the air, Kentucky is exceptionally weak, and I fully expect them to trail most of this game, which will force them into their weakness. Texas has shown an ability to disrupt plays in the backfield and create turnovers off of errant throws. Short yardage opportunities will be plentiful for the Longhorns, and they will not make many if any, mistakes on offense. After a close road victory over Arkansas last week, Texas will look to run the score up quickly in this one. Horns up.

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