Camellia Bowl Pick: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois Predictions

Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6 SU, ATS 6-5) vs Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6 SU, ATS 4-6)

Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, December 23rd

Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ASU -1/NIU +1

Money Line: ASU -113/NIU -108

Over/Under: 53.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Northern Illinois Huskies matchup in the Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 53.5, while Arkansas State is favored by -1.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Arkansas State and Northern Illinois last season. But looking back across their previous three head-to-head games, Arkansas State is 2-1. Despite their straight-up record, Northern Illinois went 2-1 vs. the spread. Together, the team averaged 63 points, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Recent Form:

This week, Arkansas State will look to move back over .500, as they are coming off a 35-21 loss to Marshall.

Looking at the over/under in this matchup, the line was 53 and with their 56 points, the over hit. Against the spread, Arkansas State went into the game as 1-point underdogs, giving them an ATS and straight-up loss.

Against Marshall, Jaylen Raynor threw for 263 yards on a completion percentage of 50.0%. In the loss, he threw one touchdown and had a passer rating of 70.39.

The top rusher for Arkansas State against Marshall was Ja’Quez Cross. He gained 27 rushing yards and scored one time in 11 attempts. Leading Arkansas State in receiving against Marshall was Corey Rucker. Although he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, he finished with 87 yards on five receptions.

The Red Wolves’ defense finished the game by giving up 493 total yards to Marshall. The team’s run defense allowed 279 yards rushing compared to 214 in the passing game. Ranked 54th in passing yards allowed per game, Arkansas State’s defense gets ready to take on Northern Illinois. Opponents have attempted an average of 33.4 passes per game against the Red Wolves. They’re allowing 31.2 points per contest, placing them 133rd in college football. Their rush defense ranks 143rd in the NCAA.

Away Injury Report

Northern Illinois Huskies Recent Form:

After their most recent win against Kent State, Northern Illinois has themselves back to .500. The Huskies are now gearing up for this week’s game with a record of 6-6.

Even though Northern Illinois won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 20.5 point favorites. The pre-game over/under line was 45, which Northern Illinois and Kent State surpassed.

Against Kent State, Rocky Lombardi not only threw for one touchdown but also ran for two touchdowns. He concluded with 183 passing yards and a completion rate of 50.0%.

Gavin Williams was the primary rusher for Northern Illinois vs. Kent State, with 103 rushing yards, carrying the ball 17 times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. For the game, Kyle Thomas hauled in one reception for a total of 45 yards, which led the team.

The Huskies’ defense finished the game by giving up 363 total yards to Kent State. The team’s run defense allowed 118 yards rushing compared to 245 in the passing game. The Huskies’ defense will take the field with 23 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re at 21.2 points per game (73rd). Against the pass, the team is 18th in the NCAA, allowing 164.2 passing yards per game. Additionally, Northern Illinois’ run defense has 154 rushing yards per contest.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• On the road, Arkansas State has gone 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Northern Illinois is 2-3 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
• Huskies is 4-1 in their last five games as underdogs.
• Looking back on the last five times Arkansas State was favored, their ATS record was 3-2.

Free Pick

The spread for this Camellia Bowl matchup is razor thin, with the Red Wolves being favored by 1 point. In terms of offense, these teams appear to be an even matchup, but the Huskies have the edge on defense, giving up just 21.8 points per game this year compared to Arkansas State at 33.4. I like Northern Illinois to win and cover.