Cal vs. UNLV Predictions: Expert LA Bowl Picks and Best Bets

California Golden Bears (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (10-3 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Art of Sport LA Bowl
Date/Time: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 9PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: ESPN

The California Golden Bears meet the UNLV Rebels on the 18th at SoFi Stadium in the LA Bowl. While in-state, it’s still a longer trip for the Berkeley-based Bears, coming off a 6-6 mark in their first season as a member of the ACC. Even with their last appearance being a November 30 loss to CFP-bound SMU, 38-6, they showed some life down the stretch and look to parlay that into a nice bowl win. It won’t be easy against an upward-moving UNLV program, fresh off a successful 10-win season and even making it to the Mountain West Conference title game on the 6th, losing 21-7 to Boise State. Who should we get behind in this one?

Getting a Lay of the Land

Again, the Golden Bears weren’t given the best set of conditions this season. After a 3-0 start, they really fizzled when they started conference play, with the combination of new opponents and new venues being too much for Cal to overcome. Over the course of the season, however, there was some growing comfort, as they won three of their last five and were respectable in the second half of the season in certain spots. For head coach Justin Wilcox, considering the conditions and the form Cal had leading up to this season, it wasn’t so bad maybe if you look at it a certain way. But maybe, all in all, it was a bit of a disappointment.

For the long down-and-out Rebels, however, following their 9-win season of last year with this season has given a big boost to the program. They stumbled early against Syracuse, with only Boise State able to beat them the rest of the way, the loss on the 6th being their second loss to Boise, not really embarrassing themselves either time against a team good enough to slide into the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff. And while it’s maybe a bit anticlimactic to get to ten wins and draw a 6-6 Cal team in a bowl game on the 18th, I’d look for the Rebels to be angling to finish the season in style.

Personnel and Coaching Issues

Such is the flawed nature of college football that a guy like Barry Odom can take UNLV to these heights, become an attractive coaching hire, then have to flee his team during bowl-season. But such is the case with Odom taking the Purdue job. The interim coach is going to be receivers coach Del Alexander, which means even offensive coordinator Brennan Marion might be leaving. On the surface, this doesn’t inspire confidence for the UNLV side. Still, they’re a team that prides itself on overcoming adversity. Seeing a big part of their offensive mastermind think tank blow town is disconcerting. But maybe another way to look at it is that a big part of why the Rebels are here is because of defense, something that should still be able to surface in this spot.

Despite those issues for UNLV, I think they enter this game as the more-talented team. With those pieces Odom brought over on defense, their unit is really more a power-five “D” than a typical Mountain West group. And Cal also has some things to deal with the transfer of starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza, leaving them a bit thin in that area as they’re about to take on this defense. That’s not good news for an offense that really labored in spots, even under more ideal conditions. Their run game, and especially hyped Jaydn Ott, never delivered this season. Are they going to be able to come up with an air game here?

Angles for Cal

The Golden Bears could potentially be catching a version of UNLV that is on a bit of a bad vibe with their leadership flying the coup. With the Rebels seeing a wide receiver coach take over at the helm, it doesn’t pair well with Cal’s coaching situation, where a longtime coach is digging in and trying to end the season well. Cal isn’t in a position to talk about how they looked at times to close the season, but UNLV going 2-4 ATS the last six games shows they were at least slightly below what was being projected later in the year. Cal is playing a team that hasn’t tasted bowl success since 2000. And after playing in a conference title game with a chance to do really big things where they had to deliver in a bunch of must-win spots just to get there, is this a spot to catch the Rebels crestfallen, perhaps?

There is a lot of bad on both sides to sift through and attempt to attach value. Not a lot lines up great for UNLV. It’s a letdown bowl spot, considering what was on the table when they played in the conference title game. The exodus of coaching and the possibility of there still being some player movement makes you question whether whatever they had is already left on the field. Still, Cal isn’t exactly primed to be at their best, with their QB having blown town, some rough moments to end the season, and some damning matchup wrinkles as they set to take on this UNLV defense.

Take the Small Dog

This is an easy game in which to feel torn. I’d even entertain a position on Cal, but for them to be favored in this spot even slightly makes it so unappealing. It’s just difficult to see how they’d thrive in this spot against this defense if UNLV’s “D” enters this spot ready to go. I think that despite this being a letdown and the exodus of their coach, it’s still important enough for UNLV to exorcise their bowl demons. I see them edging this one out. I’ll take the Rebels.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UNLV Rebels plus one point.

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