Cal GoldenBears (2-0,2-0 ATS) vs.Nevada Wolfpack(2-0,1-1 ATS),Week 3 College Football, Mackey Stadium, (Field Turf) Reno Nevada, Friday, September 17th, 2010—10:00 PMEastern
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds: California -2.5/Nev +2.5
Over/Under: TBA
Line Movement: This line opened at California -1 and thanquickly steamed up as early action supports the road team.
Two teams who have combined to outscore its foes 204-40 so far this season collide in this non-conference match-up on Saturday night. Next season this game will be aMountain West Conference game. This will be the first real test for California and Nevada.
California enjoyed its second straight blowout to open the 2010-11season, crushing Colorado 52-7 in front of 55,440 at Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Two weeks ago they destroyed UC Davis. The GoldenBears have outscored their opponents 104-10 so far this season and have looked verycrisp on both sides of the ball. They will be looking to crack the APtop25 with another convincing victory.
Nevada, who will move to the Mountain West Conferencenext season also enjoyed a blowout win last week. Colin Kaepernick had 402 yards of total offense— rushing for two touchdowns and passing for two scores, as Nevada routed future Mountain West Conference foe Colorado State 51-6 on Saturday night. Colin Kaepernick has thrown for 547 yards including 4 touchdowns, while completing 71% of his passes so far this season. Nevada has outscored its foes by a score of 100-30 so far this season. They crushed Eastern Washington 49-24 in week one but failed to cover the 28.5-point spread.
These two teams have not played each other since 1996, which saw California win by a score of 33-15. There was no bettingline on that game.
The Wolfpack are playing three straight home games to open a season for the first time since 1991. A win here tonight would be the exact oppsite of last season as Nevada lost three straight games to open 2009-10. They went on to win their next eight straight before losing their final two games. Look for Vai Taua ro run a lot and try to eat as much clock as possible. Colin Kapernick will need to have a big day throwing and running if they want a chance at the minor upset.
Kevin Riley has been sharp throwing the ball so far this season for California. Riley has 459 yards passing andseven touchdowns in twogames this season. He will be tested a bit more this week, butcould utilize Shane Vereen against an unproven run defense. Nevada is good at rushing the passer and shouldbe good for at least three sacks in this game. California has leaks in their pass defense as the whole unit is basically starting from scratch. Even though both teams are undefeated,there are big question marks that have yet to be answered.
For all you trend lovers here arethree good ones for you to chew on. Nevada is 26-12 against-the-spread in their last 38 home games. The Over is 12-3 in California’s last 16 non-conference games.
Head coach Jeff Tedford is the longest tenured coach in the Pac-10 entering this season. When his teams open at -2 or less, they are 10-1 straight-up& 10-1 ATS in non-conference action. That tells me the odds-makers know this team very well outside the conference.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is a very tough game to handicap as both teams have major flaws.If California opened at -3.5 or higher I wouldhave been allin on thehome team.There is no Over/Under at press time but I would set it at 58.5 points. I like the Under if the total is set at60 or higher and goOver if the total is 57.5 or higher.If you like trends than pick your favorite one and roll with that. Good Luck!