Cal at Pittsburgh Free Point Spread Pick

California Golden Bears (3-2 SU, ATS 3-1)  vs Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0 SU, ATS 4-0)

Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, October 12th

Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Cal +3/Pitt -3

Money Line: Cal Bears +137/Pitt Panthers  -165

Over/Under: 59.5

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ESPN will be covering this Week 7 college football matchup between the California Golden Bears and Pittsburgh Panthers, set to kick off at 3:30 ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are the -3 point favorites at home, with the over/under line sitting at 59.5 points. The Panthers come in with a perfect 5-0 record, while the Golden Bears are 3-2 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The California Golden Bears and Pittsburgh Panthers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the California Golden Bears have a record of 3-0. The California Golden Bears also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 74 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

California Golden Bears Recent Form:

California enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, ranked 45th in our CFB power rankings. They have a 91.3% chance of reaching bowl eligibility but just a 0.1% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. The Golden Bears are 1-1 at home and 1-1 on the road this season.

Against the spread, California is 3-1, with a +8 average scoring margin. They are 2-0 ATS at home and have been favored in just one game so far.

The over/under line for this week is 59.5, significantly higher than their average line of 49.9. Their over/under record is 1-3, with games averaging 44 points.

California’s offense is averaging 26 points per game, placing them 63rd in the nation, and they are ranked 74th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their third-down conversion rate is just 36.1%, which ranks 85th nationally. On the ground, they are averaging 132.2 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 1,177 yards and has a passer rating of 97. Overall, California ranks 53rd in passer rating and 70th in passing yards per game. Mendoza has seven touchdown passes and three interceptions this season. Leading receiver Nyziah Hunter has 185 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

California’s defense, ranked 20th nationally, has allowed 18 points per game this season. They’ve given up 117.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 43rd and 233.2 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have a 59.9 passer rating against Cal, completing 54.8% of their passes.

In their recent game, a 39-38 loss to Miami, Cal’s defense allowed 39 points and 576 total yards, including 437 passing yards. They also forced one interception in the game.

Away Injury Report

Pittsburgh Panthers Recent Form:

Pittsburgh enters Week 7 with a perfect 5-0 record, and they are ranked 32nd in our CFB power rankings. They have a 99.3% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 2.8% chance to win the Atlantic Coast. However, they have a 17.0% chance of making the CFB playoff, which is the 19th-best odds in the country.

The Panthers are 2-0 at home and 2-0 on the road this season, with a +20.4 average scoring margin. They are 4-0 against the spread and have been favored in two of their five games. Pittsburgh is 2-0 ATS as the favorite and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.

Pittsburgh’s over/under record is 2-2, with their games averaging 70.8 points. Their average over/under line is 60.6 points, and this week’s line is set at 59.5 points.

Heading into week 7, Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up 45.6 points per game, ranking 5th in the nation. They are 24th in our offensive power rankings. Eli Holstein has thrown for 1,567 yards and has a passer rating of 116, with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Pittsburgh is 11th in passing yards per game, averaging 340.4 yards, and they are 20th in passing attempts. Holstein has completed 65.5% of his passes. Konata Mumpfield leads the receivers with 426 yards and three touchdowns. On the ground, Pittsburgh averages 182.8 rushing yards per game.

Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 25.2 points per game this season, ranking 46th nationally. In their recent game against North Carolina, they gave up 24 points but still managed a 34-24 win. The defense allowed 416 total yards, including 269 passing yards and 147 rushing yards.

Opponents are averaging 239.2 passing yards per game against Pittsburgh, completing 55.8% of their throws. On the ground, the Panthers are giving up 121.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 49th in the country.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, California has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 23 points per game.
• Through their last ten home contests, the Pittsburgh Panthers offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 29. Pittsburgh posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 4-6 ATS.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the California Golden Bears have a straight-up record of 2-8 and an ATS mark of 4-6.
• The last ten games that Pittsburgh was favored, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.

Free Pick

California might have put together some solid defensive efforts so far this season, but I see this as a game in which they give up a lot of points. Look for Pittsburgh to not only win this one but cover the spread, as the Golden Bears have the challenge of making a cross-country trip to Pittsburgh.

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