BYU vs. SMU Week 2 Predictions: Loot’s College Football Picks

The BYU Cougars come into Dallas to battle the SMU Mustangs on Friday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Both teams took care of business last week with easy wins. In their season-opener, BYU took it to Southern Illinois in a 41-13 win that they hope will port some good things in the future. The Mustangs, meanwhile, breezed through their second assignment of the season, walloping Houston Christian 59-7. Things will be tougher for each team this week.

Setting the Table

Brigham Young and Southern Methodist have a pretty limited history. Some may recall their first meeting, an unforgettable 1980 bowl game starring Jim MacMahon and Eric Dickerson. For this century, their 2022 New Mexico Bowl nailbiter was another thriller, with SMU scoring a TD at the end with a two-pointer failing and the Cougars getting the win. BYU is in its second season in the Big 12, coming off one of the worst seasons in longtime coach Kalani Sitake’s tenure, going 5-7. While everything seemed OK in their perfunctory win over the Salukis in week one, this will be a more realistic test as to where they stand.

Rhett Lashlee’s SMU squad will not be easy-pickings, winners of 11 games last season and already off to a quick 2-0 start this season. They are easing into their schedule, beating a tougher-than-expected Nevada team in their first game before squashing Houston Christian. And like the Cougars, the intensity ramps up some this week with some tougher competition. They’d love to win this one, go into the off-week, and then attack the meat of their schedule with a head of steam, as they are new members of the ACC.

What SMU Will Try to Do

The BYU defense will be having a real test against an SMU offense that can do a lot of damage on the ground. Brashard Smith is off to a fast start in that regard, but others get involved, including quarterbacks Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings. So far, SMU has seen a plethora of aerial options develop, though they will likely stick more to their main guys as the competition rises. Some of these numbers we’ve seen have surely been swelled by playing some pretty bad defenses in Nevada and Houston Christian. As big 24-point favorites against Nevada, they trailed 24-13 into the fourth quarter, and while they dug it out, it was not a good look. A win over Houston Christian and a near-disaster against Nevada may leave them entering this spot with something to prove. They’ve gotten an easy start and BYU are no world beaters, but the Mustangs look far from infallible.

I’d look for coach Lashlee to continue getting the Mustangs back on point, with last week serving notice. Week one was an avalanche of miscues and penalties that put them right on the brink. At the same time, Preston Stone’s 35-yard TD throw to RJ Maryland with just over a minute to take the lead is a promising show of clutch play and poise from a Mustangs’ offense that had a lot expected of it this season.

Did BYU Find Their Man?

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff was off to a fast start in game one for the Cougars, passing for 348 yards, three TDs, and no picks. He was able to lean on a nice 1-2 punch out of the backfield with beefy backs LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. Each got into the end zone against Southern Illinois. Granted, smacking around the Salukis doesn’t signal a revival, but seeing Retzlaff playing so well and connecting nicely with receiver Chase Roberts was at least a promising development.

It really is only part of the equation for the Cougars, as they’re going to have to find answers for their run-defense and not just for this game, but in the Big 12 in general, if they want to succeed. Southern Methodist is going to be giving them a bevy of different looks on the ground, and if we see BYU showing some of that shaky form on run defense, it really throws the rest of their operations into a funk. They need to keep that part of the SMU offense from going nuts, as they generally struggle against good running games led by nimble quarterbacks. And after giving up 121 yards and two TDs on the ground to SIU quarterback DJ Williams last week, it’s a big factor heading into this week. Against a talented team looking to run a lot, BYU will need answers.

Lay the Number

I don’t blame those who are gun-shy after taking SMU against Nevada and never being in a position to cover. I think being at home instead of some funky, out-of-the-way location will give way to a better version of the Mustangs. I don’t question whether BYU has a certain amount of offensive talent upon which they can lean on in this game. It’s just that eventually, the SMU run-attack will begin producing. It’s not just the mere offensive production that will ensue, but also SMU controlling the tempo of the game, keeping the BYU offense off the field, and generally wearing down a run defense that might not have a ton of answers. I think the Cougars hang in there for a bit, with SMU pulling away late for the win and cover. I’m taking Southern Methodist in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the SMU Mustangs minus 10 points.