BYU vs. Colorado Predictions & Picks: Alamo Bowl

BYU Cougars (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Valero Alamo Bowl
Date/Time: Saturday, December 28, 2024, at 7:30PM EST
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
TV: ABC

The BYU Cougars take on the Colorado Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl on Saturday. These teams didn’t play each other this season, as both are new arrivals in the Big 12 Conference, with Colorado having joined this season and BYU in their second season. Despite the newness, both teams ascended, going 7-2 in the Big 12 and being near the top of the conference standings. These teams both enter this spot coming off a break, with these squads having last played in late November. BYU ended their regular season with a 30-18 win over Houston, while Colorado pounded Oklahoma State, 52-0, to notch their ninth win of the season.

How Each Team Looked

Despite a 9-0 start to the season and finishing with a win, BYU had some issues toward the end of the season. The loss to Kansas was bad, with the loss the next week to ASU taking some things off the table for a Cougars team that had a chance to get into the CFP before falling off a little bit later in the year. Still, for Kalani Sitake and this Cougars’ bunch, it was a good season, and I don’t expect there to be any letdown in this spot, despite their eyes maybe being on some bigger things leading up to a rough month of November.

Coach Sanders and his weapons really completed the Colorado upgrade this season, getting to 9 wins. From a betting standpoint, both of these teams have been pretty good, but for Colorado to be 9-3 against the spread with a lot of casual money coming in on the Buffs really speaks to how they performed in 2024. With Shaddeur Sanders and Heisman-winner Travis Hunter, it’s a team with some star-power and ending the season with a win over a 10-win team would put a nice bow on this.

What to Expect

I think fans and bettors alike should brace for an exciting bowl game between two teams who really want to be here. Despite there being some issues on the personnel front for both teams, this isn’t going to be one of those bowl games where teams have to shuffle to find replacements for key guys who flew the coup. BYU has some issues on their offensive line, with a few key defensive guys missing. Colorado has a transfer or two, along with some injury stuff on defense. But speaking relatively from what we’ve seen this bowl season, they’re two intact teams.

Between the work of BYU’s Jake Retzlaff and Colorado’s Sanders and all their aerial weaponry, this could be a high-scoring game that is heavy on pass-offense. With Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter, Retzlaff has nice weaponry that he can employ, and it’s an offense that can really capitalize off of momentum in the event that they get on a roll. But Sanders not only has Hunter with which to work, as guys like LaJohntay Wester and Will Sheppard add a lot of menace with their work this season.

I’d be a little concerned for the Cougars if this in fact does turn into more of an aerial battle. Nothing against Retzlaff and the work he has done this season, but the weaponry on the other sideline is at least a little more compelling. Whereas Retzlaff completed 57% of his passes, Sanders completed 74%. Retzlaff has 2747 yards, while Sanders has 3926. Retzlaff had 26 touchdowns, Sanders had 39. Granted, BYU would be the more likely team out of the two to forge something resembling a run-attack. And in terms of having a disruptive defense that can sway things in a team’s favor, they would have the edge there, too. But if this becomes a high-scoring kind of game, it would appear the Buffaloes flex a higher level of overall horsepower.

Questions

Can we trust that all of the key guys in Colorado are going to play? It’s a weird time we’re in, and you can’t take much for granted in this area of college football. With the Buffaloes having not won a bowl game since 2004, will coach Sanders and his team look to exorcise that demon? Despite ending the season with nine covers in their last ten games, is this a bad-value spot on Colorado? Despite playing in the same conference with a similar strength of schedule, the team that got one more win is the underdog?

With all the focus on Sanders and Hunter, are we maybe forgetting the immense strides made on the defensive side of the ball for the Buffaloes this season? How much do we trust in Retzlaff at this level? While this good BYU season occurred on his dime, are these the spots where some of his inadequacies in terms of accuracy and decision-making shine through a little more? Will the disruptive BYU defense be left with too little to work with dealing with a QB in Sanders who specializes in making good decisions?

Lay the Number

I feel some compunctions about making the square-play in this game, as it seems like everyone and their mother will have Colorado in this one. I just think it’s a decent play regardless, assuming the number stays in this 3-4 range. I think Colorado’s superior firepower and better QB play should carry the day, and if Sanders can play a clean game, deal with some pressure and not cough up the ball, I see Colorado cruising to the finish line with the win and the cover in the Alamo Bowl. I’ll take the Buffaloes.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Colorado Buffaloes minus 3.5 points.

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