Buffalo at UConn Predictions: Can the Huskies Cover the Spread?

Buffalo Bulls (3-1 SU, ATS 1-1) vs UConn Huskies (2-2 SU, ATS 2-1)
Date: 12:00 EST Saturday, September 28th
Location: Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT
TV: CBSS
Point Spread: Buf +5.5/UConn -5.5
Money Line: Buff +180/Connecticut -219
Over/Under: 45.5

UConn is set to host Buffalo in a week five non-conference matchup at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in East Hartford. Kick-off is scheduled for 12:00 ET, with the game being broadcast on CBSS. The UConn Huskies are 2-2 this season, and Buffalo comes in with a 3-1 record. The over/under line is currently 45.5 points, and UConn is the -5.5 point favorite at home.

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Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Buffalo Bulls and UConn Huskies did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Buffalo Bulls have a record of 2-1. The Buffalo Bulls also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 63 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Buffalo Bulls Recent Form:

Buffalo is now 3-1 after pulling off a big road upset over Northern Illinois. The Bulls, who were +13 point underdogs, not only won the game but also covered the spread. The over/under line was set at 43 points, and the teams combined for exactly 43 points, resulting in a push. This was Buffalo’s first game against a Mid-American Conference opponent, and they came out on top in overtime, 23-20.

Buffalo fell behind early, with Northern Illinois taking a 14-3 lead at halftime. The Bulls fought back to tie the game at 20-20 by the end of the 4th quarter and added a field goal in overtime to secure the win.

Buffalo’s offense struggled in their 23-20 overtime win, managing just 186 total yards and nine first downs. The Bulls’ ground game was limited to 79 yards on 36 carries, but they found the end zone once on the ground. In the passing game, C.J. Ogbonna completed 10 of 17 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 96.94.

Al-Jay Henderson led the team in rushing with 56 yards on 11 carries, while Victor Snow was the top receiver with three catches for 72 yards.

Buffalo’s defense will be looking to tighten up after allowing 359 total yards to Northern Illinois in their most recent game. The Bulls gave up 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, while their secondary allowed 194 passing yards on 23 completions. Buffalo’s defense did come up with one interception to help slow down Northern Illinois’ offense.

Away Injury Report

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UConn Huskies Recent Form:

UConn’s record now stands at 2-2 after a resounding 48-14 victory over Florida Atlantic. The Huskies, who were -1 point favorites, not only won but also covered the spread. This game’s over/under was set at 45.5 points, but the teams combined for 62 points, hitting the over.

UConn took control early, leading 3-0 after the first quarter and extending their lead to 17-0 by halftime. Florida Atlantic managed to score in the third quarter, but the Huskies added 10 points of their own and then outscored the Owls 21-7 in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

UConn’s offense was dominant in their 48-14 win, racking up 544 total yards. The ground game was particularly effective, with 423 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Mel Brown led the way with 156 yards on 21 carries, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. The Huskies moved the chains 32 times, and their defense allowed just 14 points. In the passing game, Nick Evers threw for 88 yards and one touchdown, completing 64.3% of his passes.

UConn’s defense was dominant in their 48-14 win over Florida Atlantic, holding them to just 250 total yards. The Huskies’ secondary was particularly effective, limiting Florida Atlantic to 87 passing yards on 9 completions. UConn’s defense also picked off one pass. On the ground, they gave up 163 yards, but they did not allow a single rushing touchdown.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across the Buffalo Bulls last five road games, the team averaged 14 points per game while allowing 23. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, UConn has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 13 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Buffalo Bulls have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 1-4.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the UConn Huskies have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Free Pick

This is going to be an interesting matchup on Saturday, as Uconn comes in with a strong offensive unit, but the strength of Buffalo’s team is their defense. From a point-spread perspective, I’ve been going back and forth on how to play this one, but all along, I’ve felt really good about the under at 45.5 points. Buffalo’s offense figures to struggle, and I think Uconn’s offense is going to face a lot more resistance compared to last week. I’m going with the under for this matchup.