Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: Game Preview, Odds, and Picks

NCAAF – Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets
Where: Glass Bowl (Toledo, OH)
When: Saturday, October 26th at 3:30 PM EST
Watch: ESPN+

Betting Odds

• Toledo Rockets: -2.5
• Over/Under: 50.0

Game Overview: Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets

If you’re a fan of MACtion like I am, you are not going to want to miss this Saturday’s game between the Bowling Green Falcons and the Toledo Rockets. This yearly occurrence is one of the MAC’s best games year in and year out, and this iteration will be no different. Toledo has dominated the series as of late, winning 12 of the last 14, but if last year’s 1-point victory is any indication, we are in for an absolute battle.

These two programs know each other very well and actually stack up quite evenly according to their 2024 season statistics. Their respective seasons have gone in different directions, but neither is completely out of the running for a MAC championship. Each squad is hoping to build off of their victories from a week ago and continue to build momentum by extending their winning streaks. The outcome of this one will boil down to a few key factors, and the Falcons and Rockets will need to rely on the strengths of their rosters to earn a win.

Bowling Green Falcons: Key Stats and Analysis

The Bowling Green Falcons enter their 8th game of the season with a 3-4 record and start a two-game road trip. They started their 2024 campaign off with a dominant home win against Fordham before drawing Penn State and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks. Many thought those games would be blowouts, but the Falcons held their own and easily covered 20+ point spreads as enormous underdogs.

Bowling Green is led offensively by quarterback Connor Bazelak, who has completed nearly 70% of his pass attempts and averages 234.9 passing yards per game. He boasts a 2:1 TD-to-interception ratio. His top target, tight end Harold Fannin, leads the team with 872 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Defensively, Bowling Green excels against the pass, allowing just 161.7 passing yards per game, ranking 28th nationally. However, their run defense is a weak point, conceding over 175 rushing yards per game.

Toledo Rockets: Key Stats and Analysis

Toledo enters this home game with an impressive 5-2 record after grinding out a tough 13-6 victory at Northern Illinois. Their most impressive win came in Week 3, when they dominated Mississippi State on the road, covering the 10.5-point spread and controlling the game from start to finish.

Toledo’s offense averages 254.4 passing yards per game, but the potential absence of starting quarterback Tucker Gleason (injury) leaves questions. If Gleason is unavailable, John Alan Richter will likely start again. Though serviceable, Richter’s accuracy has been inconsistent. He’s managed four touchdowns without an interception, but his yardage has fallen short of expectations.

The Rockets’ defense is solid, especially against the run, allowing just 119.9 rushing yards per game. They’ve been keeping opponents under 20 points per game, but they’re vulnerable to the passing attack, which could be tested by Bowling Green.

Expert Pick: Under 50.0 (-110)

This is not a flashy pick by any stretch, but I think defense will reign supreme in this matchup. Injuries to Bowling Green’s secondary receivers and Toledo’s starting quarterback will result in offensive inefficiencies and plenty of punting. Despite last year’s 32-31 shootout, these squads are not operating at the same offensive level. Expect a grind-it-out battle in the trenches, with both teams relying on clock control via their running games. A moving clock means a lower-scoring game, making the under a solid pick.

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