Bowl Betting

Navy vs Oklahoma

Bet the Sooners sooner rather than later.

In my first college football column I said that the FBS season is my favorite sports betting time of the year.

In my last college football column you see the reason why – after the win with Boise State my record stands at 20-9, 71%.

Included in those 20 wins is the only investment size play (larger dollar amount) I made this season, a winner with Oklahoma in week one.
So, yeah – it’s STILL my favorite sport, my favorite season.

And now we step into bowl territory.
In addition to the regular season handicapping methods I use I have an additional seven Bowl systems.

Anyone who’s been following along with me this season knows all about the regular season methods, here’s a breakdown of the Bowl stuff.
I have 15-17 years of data accumulated on these plays.

Play #2
I rate every Bowl team in six different categories (such as Strength of Schedule, Rushing Offense, etc.) Play #2 is when a team has the better number in all six categories.
Record 18-13, 58%.

Play #3
This is when a team has a better number in five of six categories including the three top rated ones (top rated ones are the categories with the highest winning percentage.)
Record 23-15, 60%.

Play #5
This is a second half adjustment play, based on the first half score.
Record 9-5, 64%.

Play #6
This is when a team hits on all six categories I measure and has a better turnover differential.
Record 9-5, 64%.

Play #7
This is when a team has a SOS differential of X or greater.
Record 12-6, 67%.

Play #7A
Same as #7 above but also has the best number for rushing offense yards per game.
Record 4-1, 80%.

(If you wondering why there’s no Play #1 or #4 it’s because over the years they averaged out to 50% so I dropped them.)

The seventh play is one that I didn’t formulate myself. A friend told me about it last year: “Bet against any bowl team that ended the regular season with two straight losses.”
Last year this was 3-1.
All four bet ON teams were dogs.
The three winners lost their last two games of the regular season. The only spot that lost was a play AGAINST Bowling Green, who lost four straight games to end the season. I mention this because of the nine teams that qualify this year some have lost more than two straight and some are Favs not Dogs.

I’m only sharing this for info purposes.
I definitely won’t play all of them; I may not play any of them. I don’t have enough data with just four games charted from last year (and don’t have time to research previous seasons.) I thought some of you might be interested, so I added it here.
Here are the teams you would play AGAINST: James Madison, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Washington State, Texas A&M, and North Carolina.

Here are the teams you would play ON: Western Kentucky, Florida, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, USC, and Connecticut.

Pit and Toledo also come into the bowl season off of two losses but they play each other so they cancel each other out.

If anyone has any questions or corrections on this or anything else drop me a line in the forum section and I’ll get you an answer.

Now for my first Bowl buy.

I’ll start the Bowl season the same way I started the regular season, looking for a win with Oklahoma.
They are the only team that qualifies for Play #7, 12-6, 67%.

Some books don’t have a number on it yet because their opponent is Navy, who still has the Army game ahead of them. The books that do have a line up make the Sooners an 8′ point Fav.

The Sooners finished the season 6-6 SU and 6-6 ATS.
The Midshipmen were 8-3 and 7-4.
Those numbers favor Navy slightly, but let’s dig deeper.

Sagarin has Oklahoma ranked 28th, Navy is at 72.
Sagarin SOS has Ok at #2, Navy at #88.
Those numbers show an Oklahoma bet looking a little better.

Now, let’s take that huge differential in SOS and apply it to regular season games.
Twice this season Navy faced teams ranked in the top 25.
Results?
A 37 point loss to #12 Notre Dame, 51-14, and a 35 point loss to #25 Tulane, 35-zip.
Oklahoma’s looking real good.

Navy has one game left facing a top 25 opponent, #22 Army this coming Saturday. Looking at their scores versus their other two top 25 opponents this season makes me want to take a look at maybe betting on Army on Saturday (I already have a play on the game, posted in the PredictEm forum. If you’re thinking of laying a little action on this one check out my analysis on the total.)

When to Buy Recommendation

Win or lose vs. Army, this number is not going to get any better.
And that’s why I grabbed it this morning (Tuesday, 12/10.)
If you’re going to take the Sooners grab them now, this one might go to double digits by kickoff.
And if your book isn’t offering it yet, well, like I’ve been advising all season – GET MORE OUTS!
Increase your opportunity to finish with a profit by having multiple books to shop at.

My play:
Oklahoma -8′

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