Boston College vs Florida State Betting Picks: Loot Levinson’s Expert Analysis

The Boston College Eagles come to Tallahassee on Monday for an ACC matchup with the Florida State Seminoles. Even as the season has barely started, the Seminoles already have more losses than they did last regular season, falling to Georgia Tech, 24-21, in the opener. They now look to right the ship again in conference with the Eagles coming into town. Coming off their first bowl win since 2016 and with former Penn State and NFL head coach Bill O’Brien in his first year at the helm at BC, they might not be the cupcake they used to be. They haven’t beaten Florida State since 2017, but for the most part, they avoid being embarrassed by their more-celebrated ACC counterpart.

Early Returns for the Seminoles

The season has barely gotten underway, and already the Seminoles need to make up ground. It’s unusual that things are so fresh, and Florida St. already has an agenda. It was disheartening to lose on a last-second FG. DJ Uiagalelei was dogged late, converting two fourth downs on a long TD drive late that gave the Seminoles the lead. But the Georgia Tech running-game and a lack of offensive continuity in the second half ruined their season opener and Uiagalelei’s debut despite a capable showing overall.

Florida State has to address some issues before they get into the meat of their season. I thought they were a bit too conservative with Uiagalelei, a veteran who has now started for three teams. And maybe they could have trusted him more, instead opting for an approach that might have been too vanilla. The O-line didn’t look good, and the defensive line was worse.

Issues for This Game for the Seminoles

Not to portray Boston College as having an offense replicating to Georgia Tech, but there are some similarities with a run-heavy approach, along with a QB who can use his legs to good effect. You would think the NFL stylings of Bill O’Brien could lead to making this offense more pass-happy, as he tries to convert Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos into more of a pocket passer, but I wouldn’t count on that, as we should still see an Eagles’ offense trying to move the ball on the ground. And after seeing that FSU defensive line last week, that could pose some issues.

It wasn’t just the defensive line for Florida State that went sideways against the Yellow Jackets, as their whole defense seemed out of sorts. The middle of that defense was ineffectual. It made the secondary start struggling, and before you knew it, you were watching a defense on its heels. They were missing tackles all over the field and it was clear this side of the ball for FSU was not ready to hit the ground running to kick off the season. Whether you want to chalk that up to some preseason concerns coming to fruition or that this was a byproduct of the complex Georgia Tech run-game is up to you, but it’s not something you can feel great about moving ahead to this game.

It was massively-frustrating to watch last week and you wonder if some of those Florida St. issues don’t roll over to this game against another team that relies on the run that is quietly rising and a little under most people’s radar. And what exactly was going on with Mike Norvell and his staff? It was upsetting to not see them making adjustments of any kind on defense, not allowing Uiagalelei to take shots when the Yellow Jackets’ defense stacked the box anticipating the run, and just running a somewhat-predictable offense.

What to Expect

You’d have to think the FSU staff and players are going to be pushing hard in their home-opener, already in atonement mode after taking that loss. Beyond the loss were just all the vocal complaints on how things were run, which should give way to some better handling of the game plan. I can’t imagine you’re going to see Florida State stubbornly running the ball into stacked boxes over and over. But if some things start not panning out, you wonder what kind of FSU team we will see this season. The offensive line which was supposed to be a strength was pushed around by a Georgia Tech defensive front that wasn’t highly-lauded. Boston College can maybe recreate some of that menace in the trenches and test Florida State along both lines of scrimmage.

Florida State will adjust. This coaching staff is too good not to start seeing some of these issues get corrected. When a team has a really bad season opener like that, it’s important to keep in mind that a one-game window is not sufficient to start etching assessments in concrete. And at home against a team that might not be as dangerous as Georgia Tech could help get them pointed in the right direction. But 16.5 is a lot of points against a BC team that is on the way up, particularly with an FSU offense that is still working a lot of things out and hasn’t dialed in their aerial game yet.

Take the Points

Granted, you don’t want your bet to coincide with a home FSU team shot out of a cannon looking to set the record straight against a BC team still not ready for the big dogs in the ACC. There still wasn’t a whole lot that we saw against GT that warrants having the confidence that all those issues will go away. You combine all these in-game football issues with what seemed to be a general lack of fire in their bellies and it’s hard to take a game that could be marginally-competitive and lay a number like that. I’m going to go with the BC Eagles in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Boston College Eagles plus 16.5 points.